Language:English
Elise Mertens v Naomi Osaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Elise Mertens (Local)
Prediction 31.49%3.18fair odd
EV +2.34%
Edge +0.721%
Kelly +1.04%
Growth +0.024%
assuming max odds 3.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.50%31.58%31.43%34.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.003.003.2536.36%33.31%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Naomi Osaka (Visit)
Prediction 68.51%1.46fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.91%
Kelly -6.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.95%68.42%68.57%70.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.381.381.4275.19%72.32%72.46%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elise Mertens (Local): 31.49%; Naomi Osaka (Visit): 68.51%. For Elise Mertens (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.34%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +2.34%E +0.721%K +1.04%G +0.024% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.83%E -5.02%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-07 20:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92%EV -0.805%E -0.255%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08%EV -3.40%E -2.41%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-07 22:06 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -0.805%E -0.255%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-07 21:06 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -0.805%E -0.255%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-07 22:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -0.805%E -0.255%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-07 22:06 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -0.805%E -0.255%K -0.374%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -6.83%E -5.02%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 20:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.13I 31.95%NM 29.82%EV -1.43%E -0.458%K -0.673%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.18%EV -8.88%E -6.68%K -26.92%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 20:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -2.38%E -0.767%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-07 22:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.38%E -0.767%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-07 22:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.38%E -0.767%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-07 21:34 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.38%E -0.767%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-07 08:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -2.38%E -0.767%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.83%E -5.02%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 20:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-07 22:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 20:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 20:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 08:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 08:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 08:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 08:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 08:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 08:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 08:49 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 08:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 08:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 08:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 08:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 08:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 08:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -3.95%E -1.30%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 08:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.22%EV -4.27%E -1.40%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.78%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-07 21:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-07 08:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-07 19:56 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-07 22:04 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-07 20:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-07 16:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-07 15:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-07 20:50 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 20:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 21:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 21:06 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 21:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.83%E -5.02%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 22:11 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.83%E -5.02%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 22:07 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.83%E -5.02%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 22:11 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.83%E -5.02%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 22:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.83%E -5.02%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 20:56 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.53%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.83%E -5.02%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-07 20:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.41%EV -6.47%E -2.18%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.59%EV -6.83%E -5.02%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-07 22:09 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -7.10%E -2.41%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 20:20 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -7.10%E -2.41%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -6.83%E -5.02%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-07 08:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -7.10%E -2.41%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -7.51%E -5.56%K -21.46%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-07 08:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.94%EV -7.42%E -2.52%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.06%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-07 08:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 31.94%EV -7.42%E -2.52%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.06%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-07 08:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -8.05%E -2.76%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -3.40%E -2.41%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-07 22:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.68%E -2.99%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-07 12:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.68%E -2.99%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-07 12:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -9.31%E -3.23%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-07 22:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -9.31%E -3.23%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.83%E -5.02%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-07 15:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -9.31%E -3.23%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.83%E -5.02%K -18.96%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-07 15:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -9.62%E -3.35%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-07 12:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -9.62%E -3.35%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-07 12:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.83%E -4.22%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.09%E -2.92%K -10.22%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-07 20:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -13.40%E -4.87%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -2.72%E -1.91%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 12:30 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -13.40%E -4.87%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -2.72%E -1.91%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 12:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -13.40%E -4.87%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -2.72%E -1.91%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-07 13:25 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -13.40%E -4.87%K -7.66%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -5.46%E -3.95%K -14.36%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-07 22:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69% | 0.3% | 2026-08-07 22:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69% | 0.3% | 2026-08-07 22:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13% | 0.4% | 2026-08-07 22:11 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.87% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 71.13% | 0.4% | 2026-08-07 22:10 |
| Novig◎ | 3.28I 30.49%NM 30.21% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.79% | 0.9% | 2026-08-07 21:35 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.32% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.68% | 1.8% | 2026-08-07 22:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.42% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 71.58% | 3.5% | 2026-08-07 22:11 |