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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Elise Mertens v Naomi Osaka

2026-08-07 19:00 UTC — WTA Canadian Open

Resultado del partido

50 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Elise Mertens (Local)

Predicción 33.98%2.94momio equitativo
EV +0.245%
Ventaja +0.083%
Kelly +0.126%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.95

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.34%33.92%34.05%35.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.552.772.792.9539.22%36.08%35.84%33.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Naomi Osaka (Visitante)

Predicción 66.02%1.51momio equitativo
EV -4.27%
Ventaja -2.95%
Kelly -9.50%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.45

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.89%66.08%65.95%67.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.381.431.431.4572.46%70.12%69.93%68.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Elise Mertens (Local): 33.98%; Naomi Osaka (Visitante): 66.02%. Para Elise Mertens (Local), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.94. 1 corredor ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.95, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +0.245%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (50 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
DraftKings🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV +0.245%E +0.083%K +0.126%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -6.91%E -4.90%K -16.86%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-06 07:35
1xBet🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -1.79%E -0.621%K -0.949%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -4.93%E -3.43%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-06 06:39
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.33%EV -2.13%E -0.741%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.67%EV -4.93%E -3.43%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-06 06:24
FanDuel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.13%E -0.741%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-06 06:25
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -2.13%E -0.741%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.57%E -5.41%K -18.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-06 06:25
Paddy Power🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -2.13%E -0.741%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.57%E -5.41%K -18.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-06 06:25
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.15%E -1.11%K -1.70%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.93%E -3.43%K -11.21%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-06 08:57
Marathon Bet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.73%EV -4.51%E -1.61%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.27%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-06 08:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.93%E -3.43%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 06:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.93%E -3.43%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 07:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.93%E -3.43%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 07:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.93%E -3.43%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 08:04
Fanatics🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 06:24
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 07:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 07:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 07:35
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 07:35
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 07:34
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 07:34
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 07:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 07:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 07:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 07:34
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 07:35
Bally Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.85%E -1.73%K -2.70%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-06 07:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -5.53%E -1.99%K -3.11%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -4.93%E -3.43%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-06 06:14
GTbets🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.44%EV -6.21%E -2.25%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.56%EV -4.27%E -2.95%K -9.50%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-06 05:09
Betsson🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.13%EV -6.21%E -2.25%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.87%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-06 06:30
NordicBet🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.13%EV -6.21%E -2.25%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.87%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-06 06:30
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.55%E -2.38%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.93%E -3.43%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 04:55
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.55%E -2.38%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.93%E -3.43%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 04:55
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.55%E -2.38%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.93%E -3.43%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 04:55
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.55%E -2.38%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.93%E -3.43%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 04:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.55%E -2.38%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.93%E -3.43%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 04:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.55%E -2.38%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.93%E -3.43%K -11.21%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-06 04:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -6.55%E -2.38%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.59%E -3.91%K -13.01%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-06 06:39
theScore Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.55%E -2.38%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.25%E -4.40%K -14.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-06 06:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.55%E -2.38%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.25%E -4.40%K -14.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-06 06:25
SportsBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.55%E -2.38%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.57%E -5.41%K -18.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-06 04:54
Bet Victor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.55%E -2.38%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.57%E -5.41%K -18.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-06 07:34
betano_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.55%E -2.38%K -3.74%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.57%E -5.41%K -18.93%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-06 07:34
Dabble (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.27%E -2.95%K -9.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 08:30
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.27%E -2.95%K -9.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-06 08:30
LeoVegas🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.25%E -4.40%K -14.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-06 09:05
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.25%E -4.40%K -14.89%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-06 07:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.25%E -3.06%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.57%E -5.41%K -18.93%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-06 06:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.73%EV -9.95%E -3.75%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.27%EV -6.91%E -4.90%K -16.86%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-06 06:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.84%EV -11.65%E -4.48%K -7.28%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 65.16%EV -8.23%E -5.92%K -21.11%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-06 06:28
ReBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.84%EV -11.65%E -4.48%K -7.28%G +0.000%1.39I 71.94%NM 65.16%EV -8.23%E -5.92%K -21.11%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-06 06:29
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.11%EV -13.35%E -5.23%K -8.61%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 64.89%EV -8.89%E -6.45%K -23.41%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-06 06:25
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig◎2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%5.4%2026-08-06 07:45
Smarkets◎2.54I 39.37%NM 35.04%1.37I 72.99%NM 64.96%12.4%2026-08-06 06:25
Matchbook◎2.42I 41.32%NM 36.48%1.39I 71.94%NM 63.52%13.3%2026-08-06 08:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 33.88%1.24I 80.65%NM 66.12%22.0%2026-08-06 08:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 33.88%1.24I 80.65%NM 66.12%22.0%2026-08-06 08:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.42I 41.32%NM 33.88%1.24I 80.65%NM 66.12%22.0%2026-08-06 08:05