Language:English
Aryna Sabalenka v Shuai Zhang
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)
Prediction 90.65%1.10fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -3.69%
Kelly -65.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.30%90.57%90.58%92.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.021.051.051.0698.04%95.40%95.24%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Shuai Zhang (Visit)
Prediction 9.35%10.69fair odd
EV +21.59%
Edge +1.66%
Kelly +1.80%
Growth +0.388%
assuming max odds 13.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.47%9.43%9.42%11.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.009.979.7813.0012.50%10.03%10.23%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 90.65%; Shuai Zhang (Visit): 9.35%. For Shuai Zhang (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.69. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +21.59%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.53%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV +21.59%E +1.66%K +1.80%G +0.388% | 2.9% | 2026-08-06 14:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 92.25%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 12.49I 8.01%NM 7.75%EV +16.82%E +1.35%K +1.46%G +0.246% | 3.2% | 2026-08-06 21:11 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.88%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.24%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.12%EV +12.24%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.136% | 2.7% | 2026-08-06 19:35 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +12.24%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.136% | 3.6% | 2026-08-06 19:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +12.24%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.136% | 3.6% | 2026-08-06 19:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +12.24%E +1.02%K +1.11%G +0.136% | 3.6% | 2026-08-05 10:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.56%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.24%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.44%EV +7.56%E +0.657%K +0.720%G +0.054% | 3.0% | 2026-08-06 09:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +2.88%E +0.262%K +0.288%G +0.008% | 4.3% | 2026-08-06 10:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +2.88%E +0.262%K +0.288%G +0.008% | 4.3% | 2026-08-05 13:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +2.88%E +0.262%K +0.288%G +0.008% | 4.3% | 2026-08-05 13:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -6.63%E -6.44%K -221.12%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +2.88%E +0.262%K +0.288%G +0.008% | 6.2% | 2026-08-06 14:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -7.54%E -7.39%K -377.00%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV +2.88%E +0.262%K +0.288%G +0.008% | 7.1% | 2026-08-06 23:01 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.06%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 10.70I 9.35%NM 8.94%EV +0.077%E +0.007%K +0.008%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-06 10:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.83%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV -1.79%E -0.171%K -0.189%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-06 21:21 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.83%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV -1.79%E -0.171%K -0.189%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-06 21:21 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV -1.79%E -0.171%K -0.189%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-06 12:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -4.13%E -0.403%K -0.447%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-06 12:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -4.13%E -0.403%K -0.447%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-06 19:36 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.24%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-06 22:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-06 18:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-06 22:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 16:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 16:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-06 10:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-06 22:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-06 22:56 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-06 22:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-06 22:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-06 22:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -6.47%E -0.647%K -0.719%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-06 22:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.37%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.24%G +0.000% | 9.95I 10.05%NM 9.63%EV -6.94%E -0.697%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-06 23:02 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.45%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.95I 10.05%NM 9.55%EV -6.94%E -0.697%K -0.775%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-06 14:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.32%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.68%EV -8.34%E -0.851%K -0.948%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-06 22:56 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.36%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV -8.81%E -0.903%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 13:09 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.36%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV -8.81%E -0.903%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 13:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.36%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV -8.81%E -0.903%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 13:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.24%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.71I 10.30%NM 9.76%EV -9.18%E -0.946%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 20:15 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.24%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-06 22:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 22:50 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:42 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 11:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-06 19:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-06 19:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.13%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.87%EV -11.15%E -1.17%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-06 22:36 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.24%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -15.82%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-06 11:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -15.82%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-06 19:36 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -15.82%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-06 11:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -15.82%E -1.76%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-06 22:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.24%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -20.50%E -2.41%K -2.73%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-06 19:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 88.74%EV -5.73%E -5.51%K -143.18%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.26%EV -23.31%E -2.84%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-06 22:56 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -3.91%E -3.69%K -65.24%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -25.18%E -3.15%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-06 22:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -25.18%E -3.15%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-06 10:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -4.82%E -4.59%K -96.41%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -25.18%E -3.15%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-06 10:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.90% | 14.01I 7.14%NM 7.10% | 0.6% | 2026-08-06 22:51 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-08-06 22:46 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-08-06 22:46 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-08-06 22:56 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.40% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.60% | 1.0% | 2026-08-06 22:56 |
| Novig◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.59% | 11.76I 8.50%NM 8.41% | 1.1% | 2026-08-06 22:56 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.07I 93.46%NM 92.40% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.60% | 1.2% | 2026-08-06 22:51 |