Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Aryna Sabalenka v Shuai Zhang

2026-08-07 19:00 UTC — WTA Canadian Open

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (18 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Aryna Sabalenka (Local)

Predicción 89.84%1.11momio equitativo
EV -0.272%
Ventaja -0.245%
Kelly -2.47%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.11

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
85.99%89.71%90.28%91.95%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.031.061.061.1197.09%93.99%94.34%90.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Shuai Zhang (Visitante)

Predicción 10.16%9.85momio equitativo
EV +21.86%
Ventaja +1.82%
Kelly +1.99%
Crecimiento +0.434%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 12.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
8.05%10.29%9.72%14.01%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
6.758.888.5012.0014.81%11.26%11.76%8.33%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Aryna Sabalenka (Local): 89.84%; Shuai Zhang (Visitante): 10.16%. Para Shuai Zhang (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 9.85. 12 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 12.00, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +21.86%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Winamax (DE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.26%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +21.86%E +1.82%K +1.99%G +0.434%3.6%2026-08-05 10:20
Pinnacle🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.78%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.26%G +0.000%11.73I 8.53%NM 8.22%EV +19.12%E +1.63%K +1.78%G +0.341%3.8%2026-08-05 14:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.26%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +11.71%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.137%4.3%2026-08-05 13:10
Coral🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.26%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +11.71%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.137%4.3%2026-08-05 13:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.56%E -6.31%K -164.03%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +11.71%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.137%5.2%2026-08-05 15:15
DraftKings🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.21%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.26%G +0.000%10.90I 9.17%NM 8.79%EV +10.69%E +0.981%K +1.08%G +0.115%4.4%2026-08-05 09:40
Coolbet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 90.75%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.23%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.25%EV +6.63%E +0.631%K +0.698%G +0.046%3.0%2026-08-05 15:15
FanDuel🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.59%EV -4.76%E -4.49%K -79.41%G +0.000%10.20I 9.80%NM 9.41%EV +3.58%E +0.351%K +0.389%G +0.014%4.1%2026-08-05 15:15
Sky Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.76%E -4.49%K -79.41%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +1.55%E +0.155%K +0.172%G +0.003%4.3%2026-08-05 15:15
Paddy Power🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.76%E -4.49%K -79.41%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +1.55%E +0.155%K +0.172%G +0.003%4.3%2026-08-05 15:14
BoyleSports🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.76%E -4.49%K -79.41%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +1.55%E +0.155%K +0.172%G +0.003%4.3%2026-08-05 11:15
Bovada🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.76%E -4.49%K -79.41%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +1.55%E +0.155%K +0.172%G +0.003%4.3%2026-08-05 14:39
Fanatics🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.24%EV -4.76%E -4.49%K -79.41%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.76%EV -0.480%E -0.049%K -0.055%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-05 15:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.32%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.26%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.68%EV -0.480%E -0.049%K -0.055%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-05 15:15
BetMGM🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.36%EV -6.56%E -6.31%K -164.03%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV -0.988%E -0.101%K -0.113%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 13:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.36%EV -6.56%E -6.31%K -164.03%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV -0.988%E -0.101%K -0.113%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 13:10
Neds🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.36%EV -6.56%E -6.31%K -164.03%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV -0.988%E -0.101%K -0.113%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-05 13:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.45%EV -7.46%E -7.24%K -248.66%G +0.000%9.75I 10.26%NM 9.55%EV -0.988%E -0.101%K -0.113%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-05 14:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.26%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.53%E -0.371%K -0.415%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-05 15:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.26%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV -6.07%E -0.656%K -0.735%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 15:15
GTbets🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.58%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.26%G +0.000%9.03I 11.07%NM 10.42%EV -8.30%E -0.919%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-05 14:25
betfred_uk🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.26%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -8.60%E -0.956%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-05 15:15
Caesars🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.26%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -8.60%E -0.956%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-05 13:24
Betway🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.23%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 15:15
theScore Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.76%E -4.49%K -79.41%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-05 15:14
SportsBet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -6.56%E -6.31%K -164.03%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-05 15:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.79%EV -4.76%E -4.49%K -79.41%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.21%EV -14.70%E -1.75%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-05 15:13
Tipico (DE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.74%EV -6.56%E -6.31%K -164.03%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.26%EV -16.73%E -2.04%K -2.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-05 10:30
BetRivers🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.97%E -2.75%K -37.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:25
Casumo🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.97%E -2.75%K -37.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:25
Unibet (NL)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.97%E -2.75%K -37.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:25
Grosvenor🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.97%E -2.75%K -37.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:25
Unibet (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.97%E -2.75%K -37.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.97%E -2.75%K -37.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.97%E -2.75%K -37.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:25
TABtouch🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.97%E -2.75%K -37.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.97%E -2.75%K -37.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:25
Svenska Spel🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.97%E -2.75%K -37.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.97%E -2.75%K -37.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:25
betPARX🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.97%E -2.75%K -37.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:25
Unibet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.97%E -2.75%K -37.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:25
Bally Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.97%E -2.75%K -37.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -2.97%E -2.75%K -37.09%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-05 14:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.76%E -4.49%K -79.41%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -18.76%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-05 15:14
LeoVegas🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.27%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.26%G +0.000%7.90I 12.66%NM 11.73%EV -19.77%E -2.50%K -2.87%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-05 15:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 87.62%EV -4.76%E -4.49%K -79.41%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.38%EV -23.84%E -3.18%K -3.67%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-05 14:25
Dabble (AU)🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -1.17%E -1.06%K -11.71%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -28.91%E -4.13%K -4.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-05 14:20
PlayUp🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -2.07%E -1.90%K -22.99%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -28.91%E -4.13%K -4.82%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-05 14:20
1xBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 86.26%EV -0.272%E -0.245%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.97I 14.35%NM 13.74%EV -29.22%E -4.19%K -4.89%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-05 15:20
ReBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 86.62%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.26%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.38%EV -30.95%E -4.55%K -5.34%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-05 15:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.99%EV -1.17%E -1.06%K -11.71%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 14.01%EV -31.45%E -4.66%K -5.47%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-05 15:15
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.07I 93.46%NM 91.81%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.19%1.8%2026-08-05 15:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.07I 93.46%NM 91.81%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.19%1.8%2026-08-05 15:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.07I 93.46%NM 91.81%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.19%1.8%2026-08-05 15:15
Matchbook1.07I 93.46%NM 91.81%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.19%1.8%2026-08-05 15:15
Novig1.04I 96.15%NM 91.01%10.53I 9.50%NM 8.99%5.7%2026-08-05 15:15
Smarkets1.04I 96.15%NM 85.23%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.77%12.8%2026-08-05 15:15
Arbitraje (12 combinaciones) +1.60%1xBet 1.11 (91.5%) / Winamax (DE) 12.00 (8.5%)Ver las 12 combinaciones
Aryna Sabalenka (Local)Shuai Zhang (Visitante)Margen
1xBet🎯 1.11 (91.5%)Winamax (DE)🎯 12.00 (8.5%)+1.60%
1xBet🎯 1.11 (91.4%)Pinnacle🎯 11.73 (8.6%)+1.40%
1xBet🎯 1.11 (90.8%)Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 11.00 (9.2%)+0.826%
1xBet🎯 1.11 (90.8%)Coral🎯 11.00 (9.2%)+0.826%
1xBet🎯 1.11 (90.8%)Winamax (FR)🎯 11.00 (9.2%)+0.826%
Dabble (AU)🎯 1.10 (91.6%)Winamax (DE)🎯 12.00 (8.4%)+0.763%
Marathon Bet🎯 1.10 (91.6%)Winamax (DE)🎯 12.00 (8.4%)+0.763%
1xBet🎯 1.11 (90.8%)DraftKings🎯 10.90 (9.2%)+0.741%
Dabble (AU)🎯 1.10 (91.4%)Pinnacle🎯 11.73 (8.6%)+0.569%
Marathon Bet🎯 1.10 (91.4%)Pinnacle🎯 11.73 (8.6%)+0.569%
1xBet🎯 1.11 (90.4%)Coolbet🎯 10.50 (9.6%)+0.388%
1xBet🎯 1.11 (90.2%)FanDuel🎯 10.20 (9.8%)+0.106%