Language:English
Marcos Giron v Alexander Zverev
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marcos Giron (Local)
Prediction 10.16%9.85fair odd
EV +13.74%
Edge +1.23%
Kelly +1.35%
Growth +0.185%
assuming max odds 11.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.56%10.24%10.04%13.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.009.249.0011.2014.29%10.82%11.11%8.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexander Zverev (Visit)
Prediction 89.84%1.11fair odd
EV -2.07%
Edge -1.90%
Kelly -23.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.09
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.85%89.76%89.96%91.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.061.061.0997.09%94.42%94.34%91.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marcos Giron (Local): 10.16%; Alexander Zverev (Visit): 89.84%. For Marcos Giron (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.85. 21 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +13.74%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 11.20I 8.93%NM 8.65%EV +13.74%E +1.23%K +1.35%G +0.185% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.35%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +11.71%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.137% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +11.71%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.137% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.56%E -6.31%K -164.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +11.71%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.137% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.56%E -6.31%K -164.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +11.71%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.137% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.56%E -6.31%K -164.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +11.71%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.137% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.56%E -6.31%K -164.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +11.71%E +1.06%K +1.17%G +0.137% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -7.46%E -7.24%K -248.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +6.63%E +0.632%K +0.698%G +0.046% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 10.20I 9.80%NM 9.41%EV +3.59%E +0.352%K +0.390%G +0.014% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.59%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 10.09I 9.91%NM 9.59%EV +2.47%E +0.245%K +0.272%G +0.007% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.41%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.67%EV +1.56%E +0.156%K +0.173%G +0.003% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.33%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +1.56%E +0.156%K +0.173%G +0.003% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +1.56%E +0.156%K +0.173%G +0.003% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +1.56%E +0.156%K +0.173%G +0.003% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +1.56%E +0.156%K +0.173%G +0.003% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 14:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +1.56%E +0.156%K +0.173%G +0.003% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +1.56%E +0.156%K +0.173%G +0.003% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +1.56%E +0.156%K +0.173%G +0.003% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-04 13:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +1.56%E +0.156%K +0.173%G +0.003% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +1.56%E +0.156%K +0.173%G +0.003% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 9.86I 10.14%NM 9.95%EV +0.135%E +0.014%K +0.015%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.05%EV -2.07%E -1.90%K -23.00%G +0.000% | 1.9% | 2026-07-04 14:09 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 9.75I 10.26%NM 9.64%EV -0.983%E -0.101%K -0.112%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.36%EV -6.56%E -6.31%K -164.05%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-04 14:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 9.70I 10.31%NM 9.77%EV -1.49%E -0.154%K -0.171%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.23%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-04 14:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.12%EV -3.52%E -0.371%K -0.414%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.88%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.52%E -0.371%K -0.414%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 14:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.52%E -0.371%K -0.414%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -3.52%E -0.371%K -0.414%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-04 13:56 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.28%EV -6.06%E -0.655%K -0.735%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.72%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -8.60%E -0.955%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-04 14:09 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -8.60%E -0.955%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -8.60%E -0.955%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -8.60%E -0.955%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -8.60%E -0.955%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-04 14:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.90%EV -11.14%E -1.27%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.10%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-04 14:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 8.64I 11.57%NM 10.84%EV -12.26%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.16%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 8.64I 11.57%NM 10.84%EV -12.26%E -1.42%K -1.60%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.16%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 8.55I 11.70%NM 11.12%EV -13.17%E -1.54%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.88%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:08 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-04 14:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 14:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-04 13:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 14:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.66%E -5.39%K -113.27%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -6.56%E -6.31%K -164.05%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-04 14:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -13.68%E -1.61%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -6.56%E -6.31%K -164.05%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -16.22%E -1.97%K -2.24%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.52%EV -3.87%E -3.61%K -55.24%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -18.75%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 14:08 |
| Caesars🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -18.75%E -2.34%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-07-04 14:09 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -28.91%E -4.13%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -4.76%E -4.50%K -79.42%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-04 14:03 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05% | 0.6% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05% | 0.6% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.95% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 92.05% | 0.6% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 0.9% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Novig◎ | 10.53I 9.50%NM 9.30% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 90.70% | 2.1% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.12% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.88% | 2.7% | 2026-07-04 14:10 |