Language:English
Denis Shapovalov v Pablo Carreno Busta
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Denis Shapovalov (Local)
Prediction 69.36%1.44fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -3.59%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.74%69.35%69.57%72.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.371.361.4276.92%73.20%73.53%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit)
Prediction 30.64%3.26fair odd
EV +7.24%
Edge +2.07%
Kelly +2.90%
Growth +0.210%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.08%30.65%30.43%33.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.083.103.5035.09%32.47%32.26%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Denis Shapovalov (Local): 69.36%; Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit): 30.64%. For Pablo Carreno Busta (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.24%.
Sportsbook Odds (66 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -9.83%E -7.56%K -32.78%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +7.24%E +2.07%K +2.90%G +0.210% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -0.419%E -0.129%K -0.186%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -0.419%E -0.129%K -0.186%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -0.419%E -0.129%K -0.186%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -6.36%E -4.71%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -0.419%E -0.129%K -0.186%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.98%E -3.63%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -1.95%E -0.610%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.98%E -3.63%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -1.95%E -0.610%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.98%E -3.63%K -13.45%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -1.95%E -0.610%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.95%E -0.610%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-29 09:46 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -7.06%E -5.27%K -20.76%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -1.95%E -0.610%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 09:58 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.75%E -5.83%K -23.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -1.95%E -0.610%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.75%E -5.83%K -23.49%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -1.95%E -0.610%K -0.887%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.11%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.89%EV -2.26%E -0.708%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.20%EV -6.36%E -4.71%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.80%EV -2.56%E -0.806%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.67%EV -8.45%E -6.40%K -26.39%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.33%EV -2.56%E -0.806%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-06-29 09:49 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09%EV -3.18%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.28%E -3.10%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.48%E -1.11%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.36%E -4.71%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -3.48%E -1.11%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.87%EV -2.20%E -1.56%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 31.13%EV -4.40%E -1.41%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.36%EV -4.40%E -1.41%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.81%EV -2.20%E -1.56%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.11I 32.15%NM 31.19%EV -4.71%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.74%EV -2.20%E -1.56%K -5.37%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.26%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 09:58 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -6.36%E -4.71%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.75%E -5.83%K -23.49%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-29 09:58 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -8.45%E -6.40%K -26.39%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-29 09:47 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -6.55%E -2.15%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -6.55%E -2.15%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -6.55%E -2.15%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -6.55%E -2.15%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -6.55%E -2.15%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.95%EV -9.14%E -6.98%K -29.48%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -6.55%E -2.15%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -3.59%E -2.58%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -8.08%E -2.69%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.28%E -3.10%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.08%E -2.69%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.08%E -2.69%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.08%E -2.69%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.28%EV -4.28%E -3.10%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.72%EV -9.00%E -3.03%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.28%EV -4.28%E -3.10%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.72%EV -9.00%E -3.03%K -4.57%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.28%E -3.10%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -9.61%E -3.26%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.14%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.14%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 09:58 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.14%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.14%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.14%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -11.14%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-06-29 09:58 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -12.06%E -4.20%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -12.06%E -4.20%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -1.51%E -1.06%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -12.67%E -4.45%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -1.51%E -1.06%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -12.67%E -4.45%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.86%EV -6.36%E -4.71%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -12.67%E -4.45%K -6.85%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56% | 0.7% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.2% | 2026-06-29 09:59 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74% | 1.7% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.37% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 30.63% | 3.0% | 2026-06-29 10:00 |