L’École des cotes

Denis Shapovalov v Pablo Carreno Busta

Coup d’envoi : 2026-06-29 10:05 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

66 opérateurs (22 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Denis Shapovalov (Local)

Prévision 69.36%1.44cote équitable
EV -1.51%
Avantage -1.06%
Kelly -3.59%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.42

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
66.74%69.35%69.57%72.92%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.301.371.361.4276.92%73.20%73.53%70.42%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Pablo Carreno Busta (Visiteur)

Prévision 30.64%3.26cote équitable
EV +7.24%
Avantage +2.07%
Kelly +2.90%
Croissance +0.210%

avec la cote maximale 3.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
27.08%30.65%30.43%33.26%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.853.083.103.5035.09%32.47%32.26%28.57%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (66 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocalVisiteur ▼MargeMise à jour
BoyleSports1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -9.83%E -7.56%K -32.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +7.24%E +2.07%K +2.90%G +0.210%5.5%2026-06-29 09:59
Betway1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -0.419%E -0.129%K -0.186%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-29 09:59
FanDuel1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -0.419%E -0.129%K -0.186%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-29 09:59
Sky Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -0.419%E -0.129%K -0.186%G +0.000%4.3%2026-06-29 09:59
SportsBet1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -6.36%E -4.71%K -18.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -0.419%E -0.129%K -0.186%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-29 10:00
Codere (IT)1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.98%E -3.63%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -1.95%E -0.610%K -0.887%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-29 10:00
BetAnything1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.98%E -3.63%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -1.95%E -0.610%K -0.887%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-29 10:00
ReBet1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -4.98%E -3.63%K -13.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -1.95%E -0.610%K -0.887%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-29 09:59
Bovada1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -1.95%E -0.610%K -0.887%G +0.000%4.8%2026-06-29 09:46
Betclic (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -7.06%E -5.27%K -20.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -1.95%E -0.610%K -0.887%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 09:58
Tipico (DE)1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.75%E -5.83%K -23.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -1.95%E -0.610%K -0.887%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 10:00
Paddy Power1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -7.75%E -5.83%K -23.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -1.95%E -0.610%K -0.887%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 09:59
1xBet1.36I 73.53%NM 70.11%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.89%EV -2.26%E -0.708%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.9%2026-06-29 10:00
Marathon Bet1.35I 74.07%NM 70.20%EV -6.36%E -4.71%K -18.18%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.80%EV -2.56%E -0.806%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 10:00
GTbets1.32I 75.76%NM 70.67%EV -8.45%E -6.40%K -26.39%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.33%EV -2.56%E -0.806%K -1.18%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-29 09:49
MyBookie.ag1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09%EV -3.18%E -1.01%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.2%2026-06-29 09:59
BetUS1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.28%E -3.10%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.48%E -1.11%K -1.62%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-29 09:59
PointsBet (AU)1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -6.36%E -4.71%K -18.18%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -3.48%E -1.11%K -1.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 09:59
Coolbet1.41I 70.92%NM 68.87%EV -2.20%E -1.56%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 31.13%EV -4.40%E -1.41%K -2.08%G +0.000%3.0%2026-06-29 09:59
DraftKings1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.36%EV -4.40%E -1.41%K -2.08%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-29 09:59
Pinnacle1.41I 70.92%NM 68.81%EV -2.20%E -1.56%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.11I 32.15%NM 31.19%EV -4.71%E -1.51%K -2.23%G +0.000%3.1%2026-06-29 10:00
Winamax (DE)1.41I 70.92%NM 68.74%EV -2.20%E -1.56%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.26%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.2%2026-06-29 09:59
Unibet1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 09:59
Unibet (NL)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 10:00
TABtouch1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 10:00
Casumo1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 10:00
LeoVegas1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 10:00
Grosvenor1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 10:00
Unibet (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 09:59
BetRivers1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 09:59
Unibet (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 09:59
LeoVegas (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 09:59
Everygame1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 09:59
William Hill1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 09:59
Bally Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 10:00
betPARX1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 09:58
ATG (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 09:59
Svenska Spel1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 10:00
Hard Rock Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 09:59
TAB1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -6.36%E -4.71%K -18.18%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-29 10:00
Caesars1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.75%E -5.83%K -23.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.4%2026-06-29 09:58
NetBet (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -8.45%E -6.40%K -26.39%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.01%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-29 09:47
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -6.55%E -2.15%K -3.19%G +0.000%4.2%2026-06-29 10:00
LiveScore Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -6.55%E -2.15%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-29 10:00
Virgin Bet1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -6.55%E -2.15%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-29 09:59
PMU (FR)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -6.55%E -2.15%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-29 09:59
Betr (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -6.55%E -2.15%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-29 10:00
Fliff1.31I 76.34%NM 69.95%EV -9.14%E -6.98%K -29.48%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -6.55%E -2.15%K -3.19%G +0.000%9.1%2026-06-29 09:59
Winamax (FR)1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -3.59%E -2.58%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -8.08%E -2.69%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-29 09:59
PlayUp1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -4.28%E -3.10%K -11.27%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.08%E -2.69%K -4.04%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-29 09:59
betfred_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.08%E -2.69%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-29 10:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.08%E -2.69%K -4.04%G +0.000%6.9%2026-06-29 10:00
NordicBet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.28%EV -4.28%E -3.10%K -11.27%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.72%EV -9.00%E -3.03%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-29 10:00
Betsson1.38I 72.46%NM 68.28%EV -4.28%E -3.10%K -11.27%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 31.72%EV -9.00%E -3.03%K -4.57%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-29 10:00
Dabble (AU)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -4.28%E -3.10%K -11.27%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -9.61%E -3.26%K -4.93%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 09:59
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.14%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 09:59
BetMGM1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.14%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 09:58
theScore Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.14%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 10:00
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.14%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 09:59
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -11.14%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-29 09:59
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -5.67%E -4.17%K -15.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -11.14%E -3.84%K -5.86%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-29 09:58
Ladbrokes (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -12.06%E -4.20%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-29 09:59
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -2.90%E -2.07%K -7.24%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -12.06%E -4.20%K -6.45%G +0.000%6.3%2026-06-29 10:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -1.51%E -1.06%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -12.67%E -4.45%K -6.85%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 10:00
Neds1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -1.51%E -1.06%K -3.59%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -12.67%E -4.45%K -6.85%G +0.000%5.5%2026-06-29 10:00
Fanatics1.35I 74.07%NM 67.86%EV -6.36%E -4.71%K -18.18%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -12.67%E -4.45%K -6.85%G +0.000%9.2%2026-06-29 09:59
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-06-29 10:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-06-29 10:00
Matchbook1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-06-29 10:00
ProphetX1.43I 69.93%NM 69.44%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.56%0.7%2026-06-29 10:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41%1.2%2026-06-29 09:59
Smarkets1.42I 70.42%NM 69.26%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.74%1.7%2026-06-29 10:00
Novig1.40I 71.43%NM 69.37%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.63%3.0%2026-06-29 10:00