Language:English
Matteo Arnaldi v Lorenzo Musetti
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matteo Arnaldi (Local)
Prediction 40.96%2.44fair odd
EV -1.70%
Edge -0.707%
Kelly -1.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.70%40.96%40.96%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.312.312.4045.45%43.37%43.29%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lorenzo Musetti (Visit)
Prediction 59.04%1.69fair odd
EV -1.40%
Edge -0.840%
Kelly -2.09%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.85%59.04%59.04%60.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.601.601.6764.52%62.48%62.70%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matteo Arnaldi (Local): 40.96%; Lorenzo Musetti (Visit): 59.04%. For Lorenzo Musetti (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.67, with an expected value of -1.40%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -1.70%E -0.707%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.72%E -4.25%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-27 16:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.90%EV -2.93%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.10%EV -3.17%E -1.94%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-27 16:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.90%EV -2.93%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.10%EV -3.17%E -1.94%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-27 16:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.34%E -1.41%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -3.34%E -1.41%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -5.54%E -3.46%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-27 11:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-27 11:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.94%E -3.07%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-27 13:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.94%E -3.07%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-27 16:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -6.13%E -3.85%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.72%E -4.25%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.72%E -4.25%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.72%E -4.25%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.72%E -4.25%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-27 14:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.50%EV -4.15%E -1.78%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.50%EV -1.99%E -1.20%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-27 16:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -4.15%E -1.78%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -5.54%E -3.46%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 15:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -4.15%E -1.78%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -5.54%E -3.46%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 14:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -4.56%E -1.96%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -7.90%E -5.06%K -14.10%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-27 11:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -4.97%E -2.14%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -6.13%E -3.85%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-27 14:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -4.97%E -2.14%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -6.13%E -3.85%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-27 14:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -1.99%E -1.20%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-27 16:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 11:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 14:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 16:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.94%E -3.07%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-27 16:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.54%E -3.46%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-27 01:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.54%E -3.46%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.13%E -3.85%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-27 03:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-27 13:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -7.90%E -5.06%K -14.10%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -7.43%E -3.29%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -3.17%E -1.94%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.58%E -1.57%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 11:21 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 16:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 16:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 13:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.54%E -3.46%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-27 11:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-27 11:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-27 11:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-27 10:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-27 16:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-27 10:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-27 16:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.11%EV -9.07%E -4.09%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.89%EV -8.49%E -5.48%K -15.43%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-27 16:51 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.89%E -4.50%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.40%E -0.840%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-27 16:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.89%E -4.50%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.40%E -0.840%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-27 16:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.89%E -4.50%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.40%E -0.840%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-27 16:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.89%E -4.50%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.40%E -0.840%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-27 16:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35% | 0.2% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35% | 0.2% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35% | 0.2% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35% | 0.2% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Novig◎ | 2.35I 42.55%NM 42.12% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.88% | 1.0% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.08% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.92% | 1.6% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36% | 2.0% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
Discuss this game on odds.forum
No published comments yet.