The School of Odds

Matteo Arnaldi v Lorenzo Musetti

2026-07-27 17:00 UTC — ATP Washington Open

Head to Head

40 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Matteo Arnaldi (Local)

Prediction 41.98%2.38fair odd
EV +0.755%
Edge +0.314%
Kelly +0.539%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.75%41.94%41.85%43.73%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.292.282.4045.45%43.62%43.86%41.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Lorenzo Musetti (Visit)

Prediction 58.02%1.72fair odd
EV -0.788%
Edge -0.461%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.27%58.06%58.15%60.25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.551.621.621.7164.52%61.81%61.92%58.48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV +0.755%E +0.314%K +0.539%G +0.004%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -7.75%E -4.87%K -13.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-27 06:25
Unibet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -8.33%E -5.27%K -14.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 06:25
Bally Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
betPARX2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:24
Casumo2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
Grosvenor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:26
TABtouch2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:24
Unibet (NL)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
Unibet (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
Svenska Spel2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
BetRivers2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
PMU (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -2.60%E -1.12%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -10.07%E -6.50%K -18.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-27 06:25
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.44%E -1.50%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.27%E -2.59%K -6.57%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-27 04:25
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.44%E -1.50%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.01%E -3.71%K -9.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 04:10
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.44%E -1.50%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.17%E -4.48%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 01:55
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -3.44%E -1.50%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.75%E -4.87%K -13.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 03:00
Pinnacle2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -2.53%E -1.50%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-27 04:25
FanDuel2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.85%E -2.96%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 02:00
DraftKings2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.85%E -2.96%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 04:59
Bet Right2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.43%E -3.33%K -8.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 06:10
ReBet2.26I 44.25%NM 41.30%EV -5.12%E -2.27%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.70%EV -7.75%E -4.87%K -13.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-27 04:10
BetOnline.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -1.95%E -1.15%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-27 03:30
LowVig.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -1.95%E -1.15%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-27 03:30
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-27 05:29
PlayUp2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.43%E -3.33%K -8.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-27 06:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.01%E -3.71%K -9.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 04:10
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.01%E -3.71%K -9.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 06:45
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.59%E -4.09%K -10.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-27 02:35
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.59%E -4.09%K -10.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-27 06:25
TAB2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.17%E -4.48%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-27 06:05
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -0.788%E -0.461%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-27 02:50
BetAnything2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 02:15
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 04:50
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 04:50
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 03:20
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 04:50
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.85%E -2.96%K -7.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 06:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.85%E -2.96%K -7.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 06:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-07-27 07:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-07-27 07:01
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.44I 40.98%NM 40.78%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.22%0.5%2026-07-27 07:01
Novig2.41I 41.49%NM 41.22%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.78%0.7%2026-07-27 06:25
ProphetX2.40I 41.67%NM 41.18%1.68I 59.52%NM 58.82%1.2%2026-07-27 06:40