Langue:Français
Matteo Arnaldi v Lorenzo Musetti
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Matteo Arnaldi (Local)
Prévision 40.96%2.44cote équitable
EV -1.70%
Avantage -0.707%
Kelly -1.21%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 2.40
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.70%40.96%40.96%43.15%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.202.312.312.4045.45%43.37%43.29%41.67%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Lorenzo Musetti (Visiteur)
Prévision 59.04%1.69cote équitable
EV -1.40%
Avantage -0.840%
Kelly -2.09%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.67
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
56.85%59.04%59.04%60.30%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.551.601.601.6764.52%62.48%62.70%59.88%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Matteo Arnaldi (Local) : 40.96% ; Lorenzo Musetti (Visiteur) : 59.04%. Pour Lorenzo Musetti (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 1.69. Aucun opérateur admissible ne proposait de cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil : la meilleure était 1.67, pour une espérance de -1.40% ; elle ne produisait pas d’espérance positive.
Cotes des opérateurs (60 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -1.70%E -0.707%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.72%E -4.25%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-27 16:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.90%EV -2.93%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.10%EV -3.17%E -1.94%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-27 16:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.90%EV -2.93%E -1.23%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 59.10%EV -3.17%E -1.94%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-07-27 16:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.70%EV -3.34%E -1.41%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.30%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -3.34%E -1.41%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -5.54%E -3.46%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-27 11:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-27 11:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.94%E -3.07%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-27 13:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.94%E -3.07%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-27 16:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -6.13%E -3.85%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.72%E -4.25%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.72%E -4.25%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.72%E -4.25%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.72%E -4.25%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-27 14:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -3.75%E -1.59%K -2.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.50%EV -4.15%E -1.78%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.50%EV -1.99%E -1.20%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-07-27 16:45 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -4.15%E -1.78%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -5.54%E -3.46%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 15:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -4.15%E -1.78%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -5.54%E -3.46%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 14:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -4.56%E -1.96%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -7.90%E -5.06%K -14.10%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-07-27 11:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -4.97%E -2.14%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -6.13%E -3.85%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-27 14:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.66%EV -4.97%E -2.14%K -3.77%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.34%EV -6.13%E -3.85%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-27 14:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -1.99%E -1.20%K -3.02%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-27 16:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 11:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 14:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 16:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.94%E -3.07%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-27 16:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.54%E -3.46%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-27 01:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.54%E -3.46%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.13%E -3.85%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-27 03:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-07-27 13:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -5.79%E -2.52%K -4.46%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -7.90%E -5.06%K -14.10%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-27 10:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.05%EV -7.43%E -3.29%K -5.90%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.95%EV -3.17%E -1.94%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -2.58%E -1.57%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -3.76%E -2.31%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 11:21 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 16:50 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 16:50 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -4.35%E -2.69%K -7.02%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-27 13:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -5.54%E -3.46%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-27 11:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-27 11:20 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-27 11:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-27 10:09 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-27 16:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-27 10:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -7.84%E -3.49%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.31%E -4.65%K -12.82%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-27 16:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 41.11%EV -9.07%E -4.09%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 58.89%EV -8.49%E -5.48%K -15.43%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-07-27 16:51 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.89%E -4.50%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.40%E -0.840%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-27 16:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.89%E -4.50%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.40%E -0.840%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-27 16:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.89%E -4.50%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.40%E -0.840%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-27 16:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -9.89%E -4.50%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -1.40%E -0.840%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-27 16:45 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (7)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35% | 0.2% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35% | 0.2% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35% | 0.2% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35% | 0.2% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Novig◎ | 2.35I 42.55%NM 42.12% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.88% | 1.0% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.08% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 57.92% | 1.6% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 42.64% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.36% | 2.0% | 2026-07-27 16:55 |