L’École des cotes

Matteo Arnaldi v Lorenzo Musetti

2026-07-27 17:00 UTC — ATP Washington Open

Résultat du match

40 opérateurs (12 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Matteo Arnaldi (Local)

Prévision 41.98%2.38cote équitable
EV +0.755%
Avantage +0.314%
Kelly +0.539%
Croissance +0.004%

avec la cote maximale 2.40

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
39.75%41.94%41.85%43.73%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.202.292.282.4045.45%43.62%43.86%41.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Lorenzo Musetti (Visiteur)

Prévision 58.02%1.72cote équitable
EV -0.788%
Avantage -0.461%
Kelly -1.11%
Croissance +0.000%

avec la cote maximale 1.71

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
56.27%58.06%58.15%60.25%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.551.621.621.7164.52%61.81%61.92%58.48%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (40 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
Hard Rock Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV +0.755%E +0.314%K +0.539%G +0.004%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -7.75%E -4.87%K -13.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-27 06:25
Unibet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -8.33%E -5.27%K -14.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 06:25
Bally Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
betPARX2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:24
Casumo2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
Grosvenor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:26
TABtouch2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:24
Unibet (NL)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
Unibet (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
Svenska Spel2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
BetRivers2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
PMU (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -2.60%E -1.12%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -10.07%E -6.50%K -18.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-27 06:25
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.44%E -1.50%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.27%E -2.59%K -6.57%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-27 04:25
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.44%E -1.50%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.01%E -3.71%K -9.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 04:10
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.44%E -1.50%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.17%E -4.48%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 01:55
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -3.44%E -1.50%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.75%E -4.87%K -13.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 03:00
Pinnacle2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -2.53%E -1.50%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-27 04:25
FanDuel2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.85%E -2.96%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 02:00
DraftKings2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.85%E -2.96%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 04:59
Bet Right2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.43%E -3.33%K -8.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 06:10
ReBet2.26I 44.25%NM 41.30%EV -5.12%E -2.27%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.70%EV -7.75%E -4.87%K -13.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-27 04:10
BetOnline.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -1.95%E -1.15%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-27 03:30
LowVig.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -1.95%E -1.15%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-27 03:30
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-27 05:29
PlayUp2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.43%E -3.33%K -8.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-27 06:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.01%E -3.71%K -9.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 04:10
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.01%E -3.71%K -9.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 06:45
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.59%E -4.09%K -10.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-27 02:35
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.59%E -4.09%K -10.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-27 06:25
TAB2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.17%E -4.48%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-27 06:05
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -0.788%E -0.461%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-27 02:50
BetAnything2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 02:15
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 04:50
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 04:50
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 03:20
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 04:50
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.85%E -2.96%K -7.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 06:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.85%E -2.96%K -7.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 06:40
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (5)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Novig2.41I 41.49%NM 41.22%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.78%0.7%2026-07-27 06:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%0.8%2026-07-27 07:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%0.8%2026-07-27 07:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%0.8%2026-07-27 07:31
ProphetX2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.02%0.8%2026-07-27 07:30