La escuela de los momios

Matteo Arnaldi v Lorenzo Musetti

2026-07-27 17:00 UTC — ATP Washington Open

Resultado del partido

40 corredores (12 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Matteo Arnaldi (Local)

Predicción 41.98%2.38momio equitativo
EV +0.755%
Ventaja +0.314%
Kelly +0.539%
Crecimiento +0.004%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.40

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.75%41.94%41.85%43.73%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.202.292.282.4045.45%43.62%43.86%41.67%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Lorenzo Musetti (Visitante)

Predicción 58.02%1.72momio equitativo
EV -0.788%
Ventaja -0.461%
Kelly -1.11%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.71

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.27%58.06%58.15%60.25%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.551.621.621.7164.52%61.81%61.92%58.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (40 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Hard Rock Bet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV +0.755%E +0.314%K +0.539%G +0.004%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -7.75%E -4.87%K -13.14%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-27 06:25
Unibet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.90%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.10%EV -8.33%E -5.27%K -14.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 06:25
Bally Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
ATG (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
betPARX2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:24
Casumo2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
Grosvenor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
LeoVegas (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:26
TABtouch2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:24
Unibet (NL)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
Unibet (SE)2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
Svenska Spel2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
BetRivers2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.085%E -0.036%K -0.062%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.91%E -5.68%K -15.63%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-27 06:25
PMU (FR)2.32I 43.10%NM 40.05%EV -2.60%E -1.12%K -1.97%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 59.95%EV -10.07%E -6.50%K -18.31%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-27 06:25
Bovada2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.44%E -1.50%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.27%E -2.59%K -6.57%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-27 04:25
theScore Bet2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.44%E -1.50%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.01%E -3.71%K -9.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 04:10
Betway2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.44%E -1.50%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.17%E -4.48%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-27 01:55
PointsBet (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -3.44%E -1.50%K -2.65%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.75%E -4.87%K -13.14%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 03:00
Pinnacle2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -2.53%E -1.50%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.4%2026-07-27 04:25
FanDuel2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.85%E -2.96%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 02:00
DraftKings2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.85%E -2.96%K -7.58%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-27 04:59
Bet Right2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.28%E -1.88%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.43%E -3.33%K -8.62%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-27 06:10
ReBet2.26I 44.25%NM 41.30%EV -5.12%E -2.27%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 58.70%EV -7.75%E -4.87%K -13.14%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-27 04:10
BetOnline.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -1.95%E -1.15%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-27 03:30
LowVig.ag2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -1.95%E -1.15%K -2.82%G +0.000%3.6%2026-07-27 03:30
BoyleSports2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-27 05:29
PlayUp2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.43%E -3.33%K -8.62%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-27 06:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.01%E -3.71%K -9.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 04:10
BetMGM2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.01%E -3.71%K -9.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-27 06:45
SportsBet2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.59%E -4.09%K -10.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-27 02:35
Betr (AU)2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.59%E -4.09%K -10.80%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-27 06:25
TAB2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.54%E -2.46%K -4.43%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.17%E -4.48%K -11.95%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-27 06:05
Fanatics2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -0.788%E -0.461%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-27 02:50
BetAnything2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 02:15
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 04:50
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 04:50
BetUS2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 03:20
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.11%E -1.86%K -4.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-27 04:50
Neds2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.85%E -2.96%K -7.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 06:40
Ladbrokes (AU)2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.64%E -3.47%K -6.37%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.85%E -2.96%K -7.58%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-27 06:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Novig2.41I 41.49%NM 41.22%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.78%0.7%2026-07-27 06:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%0.8%2026-07-27 07:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%0.8%2026-07-27 07:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%0.8%2026-07-27 07:31
ProphetX2.42I 41.32%NM 40.98%1.68I 59.52%NM 59.02%0.8%2026-07-27 07:30