Language:English
Andrea Guerrieri v Alex de Minaur
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Andrea Guerrieri (Local)
Prediction 8.23%12.14fair odd
EV +72.91%
Edge +3.47%
Kelly +3.65%
Growth +2.66%
assuming max odds 21.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.59%8.04%8.50%10.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0011.9812.0021.0011.11%8.35%8.33%4.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex de Minaur (Visit)
Prediction 91.77%1.09fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -45.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.06
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
89.46%91.96%91.50%95.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.031.031.0699.01%96.73%97.09%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Andrea Guerrieri (Local): 8.23%; Alex de Minaur (Visit): 91.77%. For Andrea Guerrieri (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.14. 18 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 21.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +72.91%.
Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +72.91%E +3.47%K +3.65%G +2.66% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -7.32%E -7.24%K -731.63%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 11:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.48%EV +23.51%E +1.57%K +1.68%G +0.395% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.52%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-09-02 07:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.91%EV +15.28%E +1.09%K +1.18%G +0.179% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.09%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-09-02 07:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 13.80I 7.25%NM 6.95%EV +13.63%E +0.988%K +1.06%G +0.145% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 93.05%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 07:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +7.04%E +0.542%K +0.587%G +0.041% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +7.04%E +0.542%K +0.587%G +0.041% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +7.04%E +0.542%K +0.587%G +0.041% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 14:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.41%EV +7.04%E +0.542%K +0.587%G +0.041% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.59%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| Bovada🎯 | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +7.04%E +0.542%K +0.587%G +0.041% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 17:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 12.90I 7.75%NM 7.39%EV +6.22%E +0.482%K +0.523%G +0.032% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.61%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-02 18:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV +2.92%E +0.234%K +0.254%G +0.007% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.32%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-29 08:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV +2.92%E +0.234%K +0.254%G +0.007% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.32%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-29 08:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.61%EV +2.92%E +0.234%K +0.254%G +0.007% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.39%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 07:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV +2.92%E +0.234%K +0.254%G +0.007% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -6.40%E -6.27%K -319.93%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV +2.92%E +0.234%K +0.254%G +0.007% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -6.40%E -6.27%K -319.93%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV +2.92%E +0.234%K +0.254%G +0.007% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -7.32%E -7.24%K -731.63%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-01 08:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 12.25I 8.16%NM 7.83%EV +0.866%E +0.071%K +0.077%G +0.001% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.17%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| Fliff🎯 | 12.25I 8.16%NM 7.69%EV +0.866%E +0.071%K +0.077%G +0.001% | 1.02I 98.04%NM 92.31%EV -6.40%E -6.27%K -319.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 18:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 16:50 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -1.19%E -0.099%K -0.108%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-01 09:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 11.98I 8.35%NM 7.92%EV -1.36%E -0.113%K -0.124%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 92.08%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 11.37I 8.80%NM 8.53%EV -6.38%E -0.561%K -0.615%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 91.47%EV -2.73%E -2.57%K -45.47%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-02 17:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 11.20I 8.93%NM 8.50%EV -7.78%E -0.695%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.50%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-02 17:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 11.20I 8.93%NM 8.50%EV -7.78%E -0.695%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.50%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 18:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -9.43%E -0.857%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 18:00 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -9.43%E -0.857%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 17:53 |
| Betsson🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -9.43%E -0.857%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -9.43%E -0.857%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -9.43%E -0.857%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 17:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -9.43%E -0.857%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 16:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -9.43%E -0.857%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-30 12:16 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -9.43%E -0.857%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 13:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV -13.54%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.07%EV -5.48%E -5.32%K -182.70%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-02 18:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 10.25I 9.76%NM 9.21%EV -15.60%E -1.52%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.79%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-02 18:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV -17.66%E -1.77%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -3.65%E -3.47%K -72.91%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-02 16:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -17.66%E -1.77%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 18:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -17.66%E -1.77%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 18:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -17.66%E -1.77%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 18:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV -17.66%E -1.77%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -4.56%E -4.39%K -114.08%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-02 18:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -25.89%E -2.88%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -2.73%E -2.57%K -45.47%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-02 18:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79% | 0.6% | 2026-09-02 18:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79% | 0.6% | 2026-09-02 18:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79% | 0.6% | 2026-09-02 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 16.00I 6.25%NM 6.21% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.79% | 0.6% | 2026-09-02 18:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.91% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.09% | 1.3% | 2026-09-02 17:50 |
| Novig◎ | 14.29I 7.00%NM 6.91% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 93.09% | 1.3% | 2026-09-02 17:46 |
| ProphetX◎ | 14.00I 7.14%NM 7.04% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 92.96% | 1.5% | 2026-09-02 18:01 |
| Smarkets◎ | 15.50I 6.45%NM 6.29% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 93.71% | 2.6% | 2026-09-02 17:55 |