Language:English
Denis Shapovalov v Fabian Marozsan
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Denis Shapovalov (Local)
Prediction 45.81%2.18fair odd
EV +2.16%
Edge +0.970%
Kelly +1.76%
Growth +0.038%
assuming max odds 2.23
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.82%45.86%45.70%47.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.962.072.052.2351.02%48.27%48.78%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fabian Marozsan (Visit)
Prediction 54.19%1.85fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.758%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.49%54.14%54.30%57.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.721.721.8261.73%58.03%58.14%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Denis Shapovalov (Local): 45.81%; Fabian Marozsan (Visit): 54.19%. For Denis Shapovalov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.16%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV +2.16%E +0.970%K +1.76%G +0.038% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -9.51%E -5.69%K -14.19%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-16 14:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -1.04%E -0.484%K -0.900%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 13:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 45.01%EV -1.50%E -0.699%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.99%EV -4.63%E -2.63%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-04-16 14:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -1.50%E -0.699%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 13:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -1.50%E -0.699%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 13:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -1.50%E -0.699%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 13:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -1.50%E -0.699%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 14:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -1.50%E -0.699%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 13:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -1.50%E -0.699%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 13:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -1.50%E -0.699%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 13:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -1.50%E -0.699%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 13:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -1.50%E -0.699%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -8.42%E -4.98%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-16 13:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -1.50%E -0.699%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -9.51%E -5.69%K -14.19%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -2.88%E -1.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.97%E -5.34%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-16 14:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -2.88%E -1.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.97%E -5.34%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-16 13:59 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -2.88%E -1.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.97%E -5.34%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-16 14:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -2.88%E -1.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.97%E -5.34%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-16 13:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -2.88%E -1.36%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -8.97%E -5.34%K -13.18%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-16 14:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -3.34%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-16 13:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -3.34%E -1.58%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-16 14:08 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.29%EV -3.79%E -1.81%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.71%EV -1.92%E -1.06%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-16 14:01 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.79%E -1.81%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.09%E -2.31%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-16 14:00 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.79%E -1.81%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-16 14:08 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -3.79%E -1.81%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-16 14:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.79%E -1.81%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-16 14:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -3.79%E -1.81%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-16 14:08 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -3.79%E -1.81%K -3.45%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.34%E -4.29%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-16 14:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.43%EV -4.25%E -2.03%K -3.90%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.57%EV -5.71%E -3.28%K -7.72%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-16 13:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -4.71%E -2.26%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-16 14:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.39%EV -4.71%E -2.26%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.61%EV -10.05%E -6.05%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-16 14:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.35%EV -5.17%E -2.50%K -4.83%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.65%EV -10.59%E -6.42%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-16 14:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.08%E -2.97%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-16 13:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.08%E -2.97%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-16 14:08 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.08%E -2.97%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -6.08%E -2.97%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -6.08%E -2.97%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-16 14:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.08%E -2.97%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -7.34%E -4.29%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.08%E -2.97%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-16 13:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.08%E -2.97%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-16 14:08 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.08%E -2.97%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-16 14:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -6.08%E -2.97%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -9.51%E -5.69%K -14.19%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.17%EV -6.54%E -3.21%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.83%EV -5.17%E -2.96%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-16 14:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 44.26%EV -6.54%E -3.21%K -6.29%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.74%EV -12.22%E -7.54%K -19.70%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-04-16 14:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.58%EV -7.00%E -3.45%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.42%EV -4.09%E -2.31%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -7.46%E -3.69%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -1.38%E -0.758%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -7.46%E -3.69%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -1.38%E -0.758%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.99%EV -7.46%E -3.69%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.01%EV -6.80%E -3.95%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-16 13:58 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -8.37%E -4.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -1.92%E -1.06%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.37%E -4.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.46%E -1.37%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.37%E -4.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.46%E -1.37%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -8.37%E -4.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -3.55%E -1.99%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -8.37%E -4.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -3.55%E -1.99%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.37%E -4.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.09%E -2.31%K -5.31%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.37%E -4.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 14:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.37%E -4.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 14:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.37%E -4.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.37%E -4.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 14:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.37%E -4.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 14:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.37%E -4.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.37%E -4.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -6.26%E -3.62%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -8.37%E -4.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -7.34%E -4.29%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-16 14:08 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.37%E -4.19%K -8.37%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.88%E -4.64%K -11.26%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-16 13:58 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 46.59%EV -10.21%E -5.21%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.41%EV -7.34%E -4.29%K -10.34%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-04-16 14:07 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.12I 47.17%NM 47.00% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 53.00% | 0.4% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 47.24% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.76% | 0.8% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-04-16 14:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.69% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.31% | 2.8% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |
| Novig◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.69% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 52.31% | 2.8% | 2026-04-16 14:10 |