Language:English
Sebastian Baez v Stan Wawrinka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sebastian Baez (Local)
Prediction 68.15%1.47fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.817%
Kelly -2.63%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.27%68.19%68.21%69.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.351.401.401.4574.07%71.51%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Stan Wawrinka (Visit)
Prediction 31.85%3.14fair odd
EV +1.29%
Edge +0.405%
Kelly +0.590%
Growth +0.008%
assuming max odds 3.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.46%31.81%31.79%34.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.902.923.1838.46%34.51%34.19%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sebastian Baez (Local): 68.15%; Stan Wawrinka (Visit): 31.85%. For Stan Wawrinka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.14. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.29%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.43%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.57%EV +1.29%E +0.405%K +0.590%G +0.008% | 2.9% | 2026-04-06 10:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV +0.331%E +0.105%K +0.154%G +0.001% | 3.2% | 2026-04-06 10:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +0.331%E +0.105%K +0.154%G +0.001% | 4.2% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +0.331%E +0.105%K +0.154%G +0.001% | 4.2% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.23%E -2.27%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -2.85%E -0.936%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-06 10:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.23%E -2.27%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -2.85%E -0.936%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-06 10:57 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.33%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.67%EV -3.81%E -1.26%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-06 10:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-06 10:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-06 10:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-06 10:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -5.27%E -3.79%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 10:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 10:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.32%E -5.38%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.32%E -5.38%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.32%E -5.38%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.00%E -5.93%K -22.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-06 10:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.00%E -5.93%K -22.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-06 10:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.00%E -5.93%K -22.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-06 10:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -3.91%E -2.77%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-06 09:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 10:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 11:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 11:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 08:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 10:57 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.27%E -3.79%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 10:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -7.32%E -5.38%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -8.00%E -5.93%K -22.85%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-06 08:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%EV -6.36%E -2.16%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.36%EV -3.91%E -2.77%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.64%EV -7.31%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 06:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-06 08:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-06 11:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-05 22:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 10:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 11:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.32%E -5.38%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.32%E -5.38%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.27%E -2.87%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-06 09:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-06 10:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -7.32%E -5.38%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.18%E -0.817%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 10:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.18%E -0.817%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 10:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.87%E -1.30%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 09:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.87%E -1.30%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 09:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.87%E -1.30%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 10:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.87%E -1.30%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 10:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.87%E -1.30%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 10:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.87%E -1.30%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 10:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.87%E -1.30%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 09:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -2.55%E -1.78%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -14.00%E -5.19%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -2.55%E -1.78%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -14.00%E -5.19%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -2.55%E -1.78%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -14.00%E -5.19%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -2.55%E -1.78%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -14.00%E -5.19%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.27%EV -3.91%E -2.77%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.73%EV -15.59%E -5.88%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -15.59%E -5.88%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.33%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%EV -17.19%E -6.61%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 0.2% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-04-06 10:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.79% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 31.21% | 2.4% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92% | 2.7% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |