Idioma:Español
Sebastian Baez v Stan Wawrinka
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Sebastian Baez (Local)
Predicción 68.15%1.47momio equitativo
EV -1.18%
Ventaja -0.817%
Kelly -2.63%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.45
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.27%68.19%68.21%69.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.351.401.401.4574.07%71.51%71.43%68.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Stan Wawrinka (Visitante)
Predicción 31.85%3.14momio equitativo
EV +1.29%
Ventaja +0.405%
Kelly +0.590%
Crecimiento +0.008%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.18
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.46%31.81%31.79%34.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.602.902.923.1838.46%34.51%34.19%31.45%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Sebastian Baez (Local): 68.15%; Stan Wawrinka (Visitante): 31.85%. Para Stan Wawrinka (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.14. 4 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.18, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.29%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.43%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 30.57%EV +1.29%E +0.405%K +0.590%G +0.008% | 2.9% | 2026-04-06 10:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV +0.331%E +0.105%K +0.154%G +0.001% | 3.2% | 2026-04-06 10:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +0.331%E +0.105%K +0.154%G +0.001% | 4.2% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV +0.331%E +0.105%K +0.154%G +0.001% | 4.2% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.23%E -2.27%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -2.85%E -0.936%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-06 10:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.23%E -2.27%K -7.69%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -2.85%E -0.936%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-06 10:57 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.33%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.67%EV -3.81%E -1.26%K -1.89%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-06 10:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-06 10:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-06 10:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-06 10:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -5.27%E -3.79%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 10:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 10:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.32%E -5.38%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.32%E -5.38%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.32%E -5.38%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.00%E -5.93%K -22.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-06 10:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.00%E -5.93%K -22.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-06 10:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -8.00%E -5.93%K -22.85%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.45%E -1.48%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-06 10:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -3.91%E -2.77%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-06 09:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 10:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 11:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 11:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 08:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 10:57 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.27%E -3.79%K -13.52%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 10:20 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -7.32%E -5.38%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -8.00%E -5.93%K -22.85%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -6.04%E -2.05%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-06 08:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%EV -6.36%E -2.16%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.36%EV -3.91%E -2.77%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.64%EV -7.31%E -2.51%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 06:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-06 08:20 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-06 11:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-05 22:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 10:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-06 11:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.32%E -5.38%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.32%E -5.38%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -7.63%E -2.63%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -8.27%E -2.87%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-04-06 09:20 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-06 10:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -7.32%E -5.38%K -20.33%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -10.82%E -3.86%K -6.01%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.18%E -0.817%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 10:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -1.18%E -0.817%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-06 10:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.87%E -1.30%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 09:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.87%E -1.30%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 09:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.87%E -1.30%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 10:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.87%E -1.30%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 10:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.87%E -1.30%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 10:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.87%E -1.30%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 10:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -1.87%E -1.30%K -4.24%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -12.41%E -4.51%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-06 09:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -2.55%E -1.78%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -14.00%E -5.19%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -2.55%E -1.78%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -14.00%E -5.19%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -2.55%E -1.78%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -14.00%E -5.19%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -2.55%E -1.78%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -14.00%E -5.19%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 65.27%EV -3.91%E -2.77%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.73%EV -15.59%E -5.88%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -4.59%E -3.28%K -11.48%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -15.59%E -5.88%K -9.45%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 65.33%EV -5.95%E -4.31%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.67%EV -17.19%E -6.61%K -10.74%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 69.30% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.70% | 0.2% | 2026-04-06 11:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-04-06 10:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.79% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 31.21% | 2.4% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.08% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.92% | 2.7% | 2026-04-06 11:05 |