Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Valentin Vacherot
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 89.69%1.11fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -2.90%
Kelly -39.21%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
86.85%89.72%89.64%92.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.051.051.0899.01%95.40%95.24%92.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Valentin Vacherot (Visit)
Prediction 10.31%9.70fair odd
EV +28.89%
Edge +2.31%
Kelly +2.51%
Growth +0.726%
assuming max odds 12.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.68%10.28%10.36%13.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.009.959.9912.5014.29%10.05%10.01%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 89.69%; Valentin Vacherot (Visit): 10.31%. For Valentin Vacherot (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.70. 34 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +28.89%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.32%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV +28.89%E +2.31%K +2.51%G +0.726% | 4.2% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.32%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV +28.89%E +2.31%K +2.51%G +0.726% | 4.2% | 2026-04-11 13:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 92.32%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV +28.89%E +2.31%K +2.51%G +0.726% | 4.2% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 92.12%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 12.40I 8.06%NM 7.88%EV +27.86%E +2.25%K +2.44%G +0.681% | 2.4% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +23.74%E +1.98%K +2.16%G +0.512% | 3.6% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +23.74%E +1.98%K +2.16%G +0.512% | 3.6% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 91.63%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000% | 11.71I 8.54%NM 8.37%EV +20.75%E +1.77%K +1.94%G +0.402% | 2.0% | 2026-04-11 13:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +18.58%E +1.62%K +1.77%G +0.329% | 4.8% | 2026-04-11 13:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -7.62%E -7.40%K -254.03%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV +18.58%E +1.62%K +1.77%G +0.329% | 5.8% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -8.52%E -8.35%K -425.89%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV +18.58%E +1.62%K +1.77%G +0.329% | 6.7% | 2026-04-11 13:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -8.52%E -8.35%K -425.89%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV +18.58%E +1.62%K +1.77%G +0.329% | 6.7% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180% | 4.3% | 2026-04-11 13:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180% | 4.3% | 2026-04-11 13:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 13:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 13:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 13:10 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -7.62%E -7.40%K -254.03%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -7.62%E -7.40%K -254.03%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -9.41%E -9.32%K -941.47%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180% | 8.1% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -9.41%E -9.32%K -941.47%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180% | 8.1% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.83%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV +8.27%E +0.788%K +0.871%G +0.072% | 3.9% | 2026-04-11 13:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +8.27%E +0.788%K +0.871%G +0.072% | 4.8% | 2026-04-11 13:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV +8.27%E +0.788%K +0.871%G +0.072% | 5.7% | 2026-04-11 13:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -8.52%E -8.35%K -425.89%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV +8.27%E +0.788%K +0.871%G +0.072% | 7.6% | 2026-04-11 13:10 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -8.52%E -8.35%K -425.89%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV +8.27%E +0.788%K +0.871%G +0.072% | 7.6% | 2026-04-11 10:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.01I 99.01%NM 91.07%EV -9.41%E -9.32%K -941.47%G +0.000% | 10.30I 9.71%NM 8.93%EV +6.21%E +0.603%K +0.668%G +0.041% | 8.7% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +3.12%E +0.312%K +0.346%G +0.011% | 4.3% | 2026-04-11 13:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +3.12%E +0.312%K +0.346%G +0.011% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 13:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +3.12%E +0.312%K +0.346%G +0.011% | 6.2% | 2026-04-11 01:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -7.62%E -7.40%K -254.03%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV +3.12%E +0.312%K +0.346%G +0.011% | 7.1% | 2026-04-11 13:35 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.33%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000% | 9.99I 10.01%NM 9.67%EV +3.01%E +0.302%K +0.335%G +0.010% | 3.5% | 2026-04-11 13:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.24%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.76%EV +1.05%E +0.108%K +0.120%G +0.001% | 4.5% | 2026-04-11 13:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.10%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000% | 9.74I 10.27%NM 9.90%EV +0.435%E +0.045%K +0.050%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-11 04:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.10%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000% | 9.74I 10.27%NM 9.90%EV +0.435%E +0.045%K +0.050%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-11 04:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.04%E -0.215%K -0.240%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-11 13:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.04%E -0.215%K -0.240%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-11 13:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.04%E -0.215%K -0.240%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-10 20:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -2.04%E -0.215%K -0.240%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.72%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.28%EV -4.62%E -0.499%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV -4.62%E -0.499%K -0.560%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-11 12:24 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.29%EV -3.14%E -2.90%K -39.21%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.71%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-11 13:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-10 18:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-11 13:32 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-11 13:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-10 20:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-10 20:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-11 13:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -12.35%E -1.45%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -12.35%E -1.45%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -12.35%E -1.45%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-11 12:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.52%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -14.93%E -1.81%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.61%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 8.25I 12.12%NM 11.39%EV -14.93%E -1.81%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -17.51%E -2.19%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-11 13:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -17.51%E -2.19%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -17.51%E -2.19%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -17.51%E -2.19%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -17.51%E -2.19%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-11 13:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -22.66%E -3.02%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -27.82%E -3.97%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-11 13:33 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91% | 0.9% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 90.00% | 9.90I 10.10%NM 10.00% | 1.0% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83% | 1.7% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83% | 1.7% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83% | 1.7% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.07I 93.46%NM 90.33% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.67% | 3.5% | 2026-04-11 13:39 |
| Novig◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 90.66% | 10.10I 9.90%NM 9.34% | 6.1% | 2026-04-11 13:40 |