StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Carlos Alcaraz v Valentin Vacherot

Matchstart: 2026-04-11 13:45 UTC

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

61 spelbolag (21 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Carlos Alcaraz (Hemma)

Prognos 89.69%1.11rättvist odds
EV -3.14%
Fördel -2.90%
Kelly -39.21%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 1.08

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
86.85%89.72%89.64%92.32%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
1.011.051.051.0899.01%95.40%95.24%92.59%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Valentin Vacherot (Borta)

Prognos 10.31%9.70rättvist odds
EV +28.89%
Fördel +2.31%
Kelly +2.51%
Tillväxt +0.726%

med antagandet om högsta odds 12.50

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
7.68%10.28%10.36%13.15%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
7.009.959.9912.5014.29%10.05%10.01%8.00%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Carlos Alcaraz (Hemma): 89.69%; Valentin Vacherot (Borta): 10.31%. För Valentin Vacherot (Borta) motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 9.70. 34 spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån; bästa odds var 12.50, motsvarande ett positivt väntevärde på +28.89%.

Spelbolagsodds (61 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemmaBorta ▼MarginalUppdaterat
Unibet (SE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.32%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV +28.89%E +2.31%K +2.51%G +0.726%4.2%2026-04-11 13:40
Casumo🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.32%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV +28.89%E +2.31%K +2.51%G +0.726%4.2%2026-04-11 13:39
Svenska Spel🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 92.32%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.68%EV +28.89%E +2.31%K +2.51%G +0.726%4.2%2026-04-11 13:40
DraftKings🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 92.12%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000%12.40I 8.06%NM 7.88%EV +27.86%E +2.25%K +2.44%G +0.681%2.4%2026-04-11 13:40
betPARX🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +23.74%E +1.98%K +2.16%G +0.512%3.6%2026-04-11 13:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.95%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 8.05%EV +23.74%E +1.98%K +2.16%G +0.512%3.6%2026-04-11 13:40
Pinnacle🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 91.63%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000%11.71I 8.54%NM 8.37%EV +20.75%E +1.77%K +1.94%G +0.402%2.0%2026-04-11 13:35
Bally Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.71%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.29%EV +18.58%E +1.62%K +1.77%G +0.329%4.8%2026-04-11 13:39
TABtouch🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%EV -7.62%E -7.40%K -254.03%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%EV +18.58%E +1.62%K +1.77%G +0.329%5.8%2026-04-11 13:40
Grosvenor🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -8.52%E -8.35%K -425.89%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV +18.58%E +1.62%K +1.77%G +0.329%6.7%2026-04-11 13:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -8.52%E -8.35%K -425.89%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV +18.58%E +1.62%K +1.77%G +0.329%6.7%2026-04-11 13:40
1xBet🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180%4.3%2026-04-11 13:20
Bovada🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180%4.3%2026-04-11 13:34
Unibet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180%5.2%2026-04-11 13:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180%5.2%2026-04-11 13:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180%5.2%2026-04-11 13:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -7.62%E -7.40%K -254.03%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180%6.2%2026-04-11 13:40
BetRivers🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -7.62%E -7.40%K -254.03%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180%6.2%2026-04-11 13:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -9.41%E -9.32%K -941.47%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180%8.1%2026-04-11 13:40
LeoVegas🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -9.41%E -9.32%K -941.47%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV +13.43%E +1.22%K +1.34%G +0.180%8.1%2026-04-11 13:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.83%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.17%EV +8.27%E +0.788%K +0.871%G +0.072%3.9%2026-04-11 13:39
Unibet (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.91%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.09%EV +8.27%E +0.788%K +0.871%G +0.072%4.8%2026-04-11 13:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.99%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 9.01%EV +8.27%E +0.788%K +0.871%G +0.072%5.7%2026-04-11 13:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -8.52%E -8.35%K -425.89%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV +8.27%E +0.788%K +0.871%G +0.072%7.6%2026-04-11 13:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.15%EV -8.52%E -8.35%K -425.89%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.85%EV +8.27%E +0.788%K +0.871%G +0.072%7.6%2026-04-11 10:55
Fliff🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.07%EV -9.41%E -9.32%K -941.47%G +0.000%10.30I 9.71%NM 8.93%EV +6.21%E +0.603%K +0.668%G +0.041%8.7%2026-04-11 13:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +3.12%E +0.312%K +0.346%G +0.011%4.3%2026-04-11 13:35
Coral🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +3.12%E +0.312%K +0.346%G +0.011%5.2%2026-04-11 13:39
BetUS🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 90.58%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.42%EV +3.12%E +0.312%K +0.346%G +0.011%6.2%2026-04-11 01:29
SportsBet🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 90.66%EV -7.62%E -7.40%K -254.03%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.34%EV +3.12%E +0.312%K +0.346%G +0.011%7.1%2026-04-11 13:35
GTbets🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 90.33%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000%9.99I 10.01%NM 9.67%EV +3.01%E +0.302%K +0.335%G +0.010%3.5%2026-04-11 13:10
ReBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 90.24%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000%9.80I 10.20%NM 9.76%EV +1.05%E +0.108%K +0.120%G +0.001%4.5%2026-04-11 13:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 90.10%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000%9.74I 10.27%NM 9.90%EV +0.435%E +0.045%K +0.050%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-11 04:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 90.10%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000%9.74I 10.27%NM 9.90%EV +0.435%E +0.045%K +0.050%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-11 04:35
Bet Right🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.04%E -0.215%K -0.240%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 13:25
FanDuel🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.04%E -0.215%K -0.240%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 13:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.96%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 10.04%EV -2.04%E -0.215%K -0.240%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-10 20:30
Betsson🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -2.04%E -0.215%K -0.240%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-11 13:40
Coolbet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.72%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.28%EV -4.62%E -0.499%K -0.560%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 13:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.81%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000%9.25I 10.81%NM 10.19%EV -4.62%E -0.499%K -0.560%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 12:24
BoyleSports🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 89.29%EV -3.14%E -2.90%K -39.21%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.71%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-11 13:40
Betway🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-11 13:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-11 13:40
William Hill🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-10 18:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 13:32
888sport (SE)🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 13:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-10 20:30
Neds🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-10 20:30
BetMGM🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.64%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.36%EV -7.20%E -0.800%K -0.899%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 13:39
Paddy Power🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -12.35%E -1.45%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 13:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -12.35%E -1.45%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-11 13:40
Everygame🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 89.10%EV -6.72%E -6.47%K -168.10%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.90%EV -12.35%E -1.45%K -1.65%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-11 12:30
theScore Bet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.52%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.48%EV -14.93%E -1.81%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 13:40
NordicBet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.61%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.39%EV -14.93%E -1.81%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 13:40
PlayUp🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -17.51%E -2.19%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 13:35
888sport🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -17.51%E -2.19%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 13:40
Caesars🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -17.51%E -2.19%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 13:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -17.51%E -2.19%K -2.50%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 13:40
Fanatics🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 88.40%EV -5.83%E -5.55%K -116.54%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.60%EV -17.51%E -2.19%K -2.50%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 13:34
TAB🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -4.03%E -3.77%K -57.62%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -22.66%E -3.02%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 13:40
Bet Victor🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -4.93%E -4.65%K -82.17%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -27.82%E -3.97%K -4.64%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-11 13:33
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (7)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.10I 90.91%NM 90.09%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.91%0.9%2026-04-11 13:40
ProphetX1.10I 90.91%NM 90.00%9.90I 10.10%NM 10.00%1.0%2026-04-11 13:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%1.7%2026-04-11 13:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%1.7%2026-04-11 13:40
Matchbook1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83%1.7%2026-04-11 13:40
Smarkets1.07I 93.46%NM 90.33%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.67%3.5%2026-04-11 13:39
Novig1.04I 96.15%NM 90.66%10.10I 9.90%NM 9.34%6.1%2026-04-11 13:40