Language:English
Matteo Arnaldi v Alexander Shevchenko
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matteo Arnaldi (Local)
Prediction 49.17%2.03fair odd
EV +7.19%
Edge +3.30%
Kelly +6.09%
Growth +0.438%
assuming max odds 2.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.72%48.57%49.47%51.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.971.952.1855.56%50.65%51.28%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alexander Shevchenko (Visit)
Prediction 50.83%1.97fair odd
EV -2.91%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -3.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.91
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.52%51.43%50.53%56.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.801.801.9159.88%55.57%55.56%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matteo Arnaldi (Local): 49.17%; Alexander Shevchenko (Visit): 50.83%. For Matteo Arnaldi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.03. 16 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.19%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%EV +7.19%E +3.30%K +6.09%G +0.438% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%EV -11.04%E -6.31%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-20 21:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV +6.20%E +2.87%K +5.35%G +0.332% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -11.55%E -6.64%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-20 21:56 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV +6.20%E +2.87%K +5.35%G +0.332% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -11.55%E -6.64%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-20 21:56 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV +5.71%E +2.66%K +4.97%G +0.284% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -13.08%E -7.65%K -18.42%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 19:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV +5.71%E +2.66%K +4.97%G +0.284% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -15.11%E -9.05%K -22.55%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-20 19:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV +4.24%E +2.00%K +3.78%G +0.160% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -11.55%E -6.64%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-20 21:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV +4.24%E +2.00%K +3.78%G +0.160% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -12.57%E -7.31%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 21:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV +4.24%E +2.00%K +3.78%G +0.160% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -12.57%E -7.31%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 19:30 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV +3.25%E +1.55%K +2.96%G +0.096% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -11.55%E -6.64%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-20 19:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +3.25%E +1.55%K +2.96%G +0.096% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -12.06%E -6.97%K -16.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 21:45 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV +3.25%E +1.55%K +2.96%G +0.096% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -12.06%E -6.97%K -16.52%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 19:29 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV +2.76%E +1.32%K +2.53%G +0.070% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -11.04%E -6.31%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-20 20:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV +0.795%E +0.388%K +0.757%G +0.006% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -11.04%E -6.31%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-20 21:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV +0.795%E +0.388%K +0.757%G +0.006% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -11.04%E -6.31%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-20 21:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV +0.795%E +0.388%K +0.757%G +0.006% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -11.55%E -6.64%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-20 19:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV +0.795%E +0.388%K +0.757%G +0.006% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -12.57%E -7.31%K -17.46%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-20 21:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.66%E -0.832%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.50%E -4.72%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -1.66%E -0.832%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -8.50%E -4.72%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-20 21:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -1.66%E -0.832%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -11.04%E -6.31%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-20 21:59 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -1.66%E -0.832%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -11.04%E -6.31%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-20 21:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -1.66%E -0.832%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -13.59%E -7.99%K -19.41%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-20 19:29 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 46.93%EV -2.15%E -1.08%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.07%EV -10.54%E -5.99%K -13.86%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-20 21:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 47.88%EV -3.14%E -1.59%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.12%EV -7.99%E -4.42%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42%EV -3.63%E -1.85%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58%EV -6.47%E -3.52%K -7.70%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.12%E -2.11%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.98%E -3.81%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.12%E -2.11%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.98%E -3.81%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.12%E -2.11%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.98%E -3.81%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.12%E -2.11%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.98%E -3.81%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.12%E -2.11%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.98%E -3.81%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.41%EV -4.12%E -2.11%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.59%EV -6.98%E -3.81%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -4.12%E -2.11%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.50%E -4.72%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -5.10%E -2.65%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -7.49%E -4.11%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.53%EV -5.10%E -2.65%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.47%EV -7.49%E -4.11%K -9.13%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -5.10%E -2.65%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -7.99%E -4.42%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -5.10%E -2.65%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -7.99%E -4.42%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -5.10%E -2.65%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -7.99%E -4.42%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -6.09%E -3.19%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -2.91%E -1.52%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -6.09%E -3.19%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -6.98%E -3.81%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.09%E -3.19%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -8.50%E -4.72%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.38%EV -6.09%E -3.19%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 51.62%EV -9.01%E -5.03%K -11.41%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.67%EV -6.09%E -3.19%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.33%EV -11.55%E -6.64%K -15.61%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-20 21:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.58%E -3.46%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.42%E -1.80%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.58%E -3.46%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.42%E -1.80%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -6.58%E -3.46%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -3.42%E -1.80%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 48.50%EV -7.07%E -3.74%K -7.95%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 51.50%EV -9.52%E -5.35%K -12.20%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.06%E -4.31%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.94%E -2.64%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.06%E -4.31%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.94%E -2.64%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 21:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.06%E -4.31%K -9.26%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.94%E -2.64%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.00%EV -8.55%E -4.60%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76%NM 50.00%EV -5.45%E -2.93%K -6.34%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.54%EV -10.02%E -5.48%K -12.07%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.46%EV -4.94%E -2.64%K -5.68%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -11.50%E -6.39%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -2.91%E -1.52%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -11.50%E -6.39%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -2.91%E -1.52%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -11.50%E -6.39%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -2.91%E -1.52%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -11.50%E -6.39%K -14.37%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 50.00%EV -8.50%E -4.72%K -10.63%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.74% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 51.26% | 0.6% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88% | 0.8% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88% | 0.8% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.12% | 1.95I 51.28%NM 50.88% | 0.8% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 48.59% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 51.41% | 2.9% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.18% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.82% | 4.3% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.42% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.58% | 5.4% | 2026-03-20 22:00 |