Language:English
Frances Tiafoe v Arthur Cazaux
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Frances Tiafoe (Local)
Prediction 65.73%1.52fair odd
EV +0.571%
Edge +0.373%
Kelly +1.08%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%65.91%65.48%70.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.401.401.5375.76%71.24%71.43%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arthur Cazaux (Visit)
Prediction 34.27%2.92fair odd
EV +8.97%
Edge +2.82%
Kelly +4.12%
Growth +0.369%
assuming max odds 3.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.40%34.09%34.52%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.862.883.1840.00%34.98%34.72%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Frances Tiafoe (Local): 65.73%; Arthur Cazaux (Visit): 34.27%. For Arthur Cazaux (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.92. 17 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.18, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.97%.
Sportsbook Odds (51 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.20%EV -11.26%E -8.34%K -32.18%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.80%EV +8.97%E +2.82%K +4.12%G +0.369% | 5.5% | 2026-03-21 23:37 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.60%EV -13.23%E -10.03%K -41.35%G +0.000% | 3.17I 31.55%NM 29.40%EV +8.63%E +2.72%K +3.98%G +0.343% | 7.3% | 2026-03-21 23:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -12.58%E -9.46%K -38.11%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV +6.23%E +2.01%K +2.97%G +0.185% | 7.4% | 2026-03-21 23:29 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -7.97%E -5.70%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV +3.83%E +1.26%K +1.89%G +0.072% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.40%EV -7.97%E -5.70%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 3.03I 33.00%NM 31.60%EV +3.83%E +1.26%K +1.89%G +0.072% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.48%EV -8.63%E -6.21%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.52%EV +3.49%E +1.16%K +1.73%G +0.060% | 5.1% | 2026-03-21 23:36 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.97%E -5.70%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +2.80%E +0.934%K +1.40%G +0.039% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 23:38 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.97%E -5.70%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +2.80%E +0.934%K +1.40%G +0.039% | 4.8% | 2026-03-21 23:38 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -8.63%E -6.21%K -22.13%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV +2.80%E +0.934%K +1.40%G +0.039% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 23:39 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -9.29%E -6.73%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV +2.80%E +0.934%K +1.40%G +0.039% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 23:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -9.29%E -6.73%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV +2.80%E +0.934%K +1.40%G +0.039% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 23:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -9.95%E -7.26%K -26.88%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV +2.80%E +0.934%K +1.40%G +0.039% | 6.3% | 2026-03-21 23:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -10.60%E -7.80%K -29.46%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +2.80%E +0.934%K +1.40%G +0.039% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 23:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -12.58%E -9.46%K -38.11%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV +2.80%E +0.934%K +1.40%G +0.039% | 8.5% | 2026-03-21 23:33 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.97%E -5.70%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.09%E +0.369%K +0.559%G +0.006% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.97%E -5.70%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.09%E +0.369%K +0.559%G +0.006% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -7.97%E -5.70%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV +1.09%E +0.369%K +0.559%G +0.006% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.66%E -4.69%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -0.624%E -0.215%K -0.328%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -7.32%E -5.19%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -0.624%E -0.215%K -0.328%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -7.32%E -5.19%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -0.624%E -0.215%K -0.328%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -7.32%E -5.19%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -0.624%E -0.215%K -0.328%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -7.32%E -5.19%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -0.624%E -0.215%K -0.328%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -7.32%E -5.19%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -0.624%E -0.215%K -0.328%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.97%E -5.70%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -0.624%E -0.215%K -0.328%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 23:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -9.29%E -6.73%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -0.624%E -0.215%K -0.328%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.97%E -5.70%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -1.31%E -0.455%K -0.696%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -10.60%E -7.80%K -29.46%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -1.31%E -0.455%K -0.696%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.98%EV -7.32%E -5.19%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.02%EV -1.99%E -0.697%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.97%E -5.70%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -2.34%E -0.820%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.97%E -5.70%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -2.34%E -0.820%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.97%E -5.70%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -2.34%E -0.820%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -7.97%E -5.70%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -2.34%E -0.820%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.97%E -5.70%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.05%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.97%E -5.70%K -19.94%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.05%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -9.29%E -6.73%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -4.05%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.31%EV -10.60%E -7.80%K -29.46%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.69%EV -4.05%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.69%E -3.23%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.76%E -2.10%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 23:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.69%E -3.23%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.76%E -2.10%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.69%E -3.23%K -10.42%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.76%E -2.10%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.35%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.76%E -2.10%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -9.29%E -6.73%K -24.45%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -5.76%E -2.10%K -3.29%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.35%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.48%E -2.77%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -6.66%E -4.69%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -7.48%E -2.77%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.35%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -9.19%E -3.47%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -6.66%E -4.69%K -15.86%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -9.19%E -3.47%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.35%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.22%E -3.90%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.35%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.22%E -3.90%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.35%E -3.71%K -12.15%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.22%E -3.90%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -2.72%E -1.84%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -10.90%E -4.19%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.84%EV -7.32%E -5.19%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.16%EV -10.90%E -4.19%K -6.82%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +0.571%E +0.373%K +1.08%G +0.006% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -14.33%E -5.73%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-21 23:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31% | 0.3% | 2026-03-21 23:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-03-21 23:45 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.42% | 1.3% | 2026-03-21 23:43 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.78% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.22% | 1.7% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Novig◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.94% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 31.06% | 2.9% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03% | 4.4% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.46% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 32.54% | 8.2% | 2026-03-21 23:44 |