Language:English
Carlos Alcaraz v Sebastian Korda
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Carlos Alcaraz (Local)
Prediction 84.83%1.18fair odd
EV -4.14%
Edge -3.66%
Kelly -31.82%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.95%84.81%84.80%86.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.121.121.1392.59%89.63%89.29%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Sebastian Korda (Visit)
Prediction 15.17%6.59fair odd
EV +6.16%
Edge +0.880%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.063%
assuming max odds 7.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.49%15.19%15.20%17.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.406.156.007.0018.52%16.25%16.67%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Carlos Alcaraz (Local): 84.83%; Sebastian Korda (Visit): 15.17%. For Sebastian Korda (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.59. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.16%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betway🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.82%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV +6.16%E +0.880%K +1.03%G +0.063% | 5.2% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.51%EV -7.53%E -6.91%K -83.67%G +0.000% | 6.99I 14.31%NM 13.49%EV +6.01%E +0.859%K +1.00%G +0.060% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 19:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.77%EV -4.99%E -4.45%K -41.55%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.23%EV +2.37%E +0.351%K +0.412%G +0.010% | 4.1% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.88%EV -5.83%E -5.26%K -53.03%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 14.12%EV +2.37%E +0.351%K +0.412%G +0.010% | 4.9% | 2026-03-22 18:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.75%EV -4.99%E -4.45%K -41.55%G +0.000% | 6.74I 14.84%NM 14.25%EV +2.22%E +0.329%K +0.386%G +0.009% | 4.1% | 2026-03-22 19:04 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -5.83%E -5.26%K -53.03%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV +1.61%E +0.240%K +0.282%G +0.005% | 5.0% | 2026-03-22 18:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 86.01%EV -7.53%E -6.91%K -83.67%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 13.99%EV +1.61%E +0.240%K +0.282%G +0.005% | 6.7% | 2026-03-22 19:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.51%EV -5.83%E -5.26%K -53.03%G +0.000% | 6.55I 15.27%NM 14.49%EV -0.665%E -0.102%K -0.120%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-22 10:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.38%EV -4.99%E -4.45%K -41.55%G +0.000% | 6.54I 15.29%NM 14.62%EV -0.817%E -0.125%K -0.147%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-22 18:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.99%E -4.45%K -41.55%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -1.42%E -0.219%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.99%E -4.45%K -41.55%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -1.42%E -0.219%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-22 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.83%E -5.26%K -53.03%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -1.42%E -0.219%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-22 08:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -5.83%E -5.26%K -53.03%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV -1.42%E -0.219%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-22 07:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.82%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -1.42%E -0.219%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-22 19:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.82%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -1.42%E -0.219%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 85.64%EV -7.53%E -6.91%K -83.67%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.36%EV -1.42%E -0.219%K -0.259%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-22 18:34 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.11%EV -4.99%E -4.45%K -41.55%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.89%EV -2.94%E -0.459%K -0.544%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-22 17:39 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.87%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 6.34I 15.77%NM 15.13%EV -3.85%E -0.607%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-22 08:44 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.87%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 6.34I 15.77%NM 15.13%EV -3.85%E -0.607%K -0.721%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-22 08:44 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.02%EV -5.83%E -5.26%K -53.03%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 14.98%EV -4.46%E -0.707%K -0.841%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 18:49 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.99%E -4.45%K -41.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -5.21%E -0.834%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 18:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.99%E -4.45%K -41.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -5.21%E -0.834%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.99%E -4.45%K -41.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -5.21%E -0.834%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.80%EV -4.99%E -4.45%K -41.55%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.20%EV -5.21%E -0.834%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-22 04:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.92%EV -5.83%E -5.26%K -53.03%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.08%EV -5.21%E -0.834%K -0.993%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-22 19:04 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.06%EV -8.38%E -7.76%K -104.74%G +0.000% | 6.15I 16.26%NM 14.94%EV -6.73%E -1.09%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -7.49%E -1.23%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-21 22:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-22 18:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-22 18:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-22 18:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-22 18:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-22 18:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-22 18:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-22 18:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-21 11:29 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.99%E -4.45%K -41.55%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 18:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.99%E -4.45%K -41.55%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-22 06:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.99%E -4.45%K -41.55%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-21 11:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.83%E -5.26%K -53.03%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-21 11:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.83%E -5.26%K -53.03%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-22 19:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.83%E -5.26%K -53.03%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.39%EV -5.83%E -5.26%K -53.03%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.61%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-22 19:04 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.82%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-22 05:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -8.38%E -7.76%K -104.74%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -9.01%E -1.50%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-03-22 18:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 84.06%EV -6.68%E -6.07%K -66.82%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 15.94%EV -12.04%E -2.08%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-22 19:04 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -12.80%E -2.23%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-22 19:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -15.07%E -2.69%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-22 19:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -15.07%E -2.69%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -15.07%E -2.69%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -15.07%E -2.69%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.21%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.79%EV -15.07%E -2.69%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -4.14%E -3.66%K -31.82%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -16.59%E -3.02%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-22 19:04 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -4.99%E -4.45%K -41.55%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -16.59%E -3.02%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-21 13:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -5.83%E -5.26%K -53.03%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -16.59%E -3.02%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.95%EV -5.83%E -5.26%K -53.03%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.05%EV -18.11%E -3.35%K -4.11%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-22 19:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.53% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.47% | 0.2% | 2026-03-22 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 87.25% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.75% | 0.5% | 2026-03-22 18:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.62% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 12.38% | 1.0% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.67% | 7.41I 13.50%NM 13.33% | 1.2% | 2026-03-22 19:04 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.65% | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.35% | 1.2% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.14I 87.72%NM 86.33% | 7.20I 13.89%NM 13.67% | 1.6% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.12I 89.29%NM 87.16% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.84% | 2.4% | 2026-03-22 19:05 |