Language:English
Nuno Borges v Mariano Navone
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nuno Borges (Local)
Prediction 37.29%2.68fair odd
EV +2.92%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +1.66%
Growth +0.049%
assuming max odds 2.76
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%37.10%37.50%39.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.512.502.7643.48%39.81%40.00%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mariano Navone (Visit)
Prediction 62.71%1.59fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -3.88%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.85%62.90%62.50%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.511.501.5669.44%66.44%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nuno Borges (Local): 37.29%; Mariano Navone (Visit): 62.71%. For Nuno Borges (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.76, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.92%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.21%EV +2.92%E +1.06%K +1.66%G +0.049% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.79%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-04-23 11:35 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +2.55%E +0.927%K +1.46%G +0.037% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -9.07%E -6.26%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 11:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -0.060%E -0.023%K -0.036%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -6.56%E -4.40%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%EV -0.806%E -0.303%K -0.486%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -7.19%E -4.86%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -1.92%E -0.732%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-23 11:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -1.92%E -0.732%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-23 11:30 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.92%E -0.732%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -1.92%E -0.732%K -1.18%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -7.82%E -5.32%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -2.30%E -0.877%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-23 11:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -2.30%E -0.877%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.04%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -2.30%E -0.877%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.04%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -2.30%E -0.877%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.04%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -2.30%E -0.877%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.04%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.04%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.04%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 11:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.04%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.19%E -4.86%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 11:33 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.04%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.19%E -4.86%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.04%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.19%E -4.86%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 11:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -3.04%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.04%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -3.04%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.04%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV -4.91%E -1.92%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.20%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-23 11:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.91%E -1.92%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.43%E -2.23%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-23 11:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -4.91%E -1.92%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -6.56%E -4.40%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -4.91%E -1.92%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -9.07%E -6.26%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 11:35 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -5.65%E -2.23%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 11:39 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 11:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 11:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -9.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 11:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 11:44 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 11:43 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 11:44 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -9.07%E -6.26%K -20.16%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -2.17%E -1.39%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 11:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -2.17%E -1.39%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 11:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 11:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 11:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 11:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 11:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 11:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 11:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -7.82%E -5.32%K -16.63%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -9.38%E -3.86%K -6.56%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -2.17%E -1.39%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -3.43%E -2.23%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 11:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -3.43%E -2.23%K -6.35%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 11:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 11:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 11:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 11:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -6.56%E -4.40%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-23 11:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -7.19%E -4.86%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-23 11:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -11.25%E -4.73%K -8.15%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%EV -5.31%E -3.52%K -10.41%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 11:39 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -12.37%E -5.26%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-23 11:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -12.37%E -5.26%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 61.20%EV -6.56%E -4.40%K -13.39%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -14.23%E -6.19%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 60.85%EV -7.19%E -4.86%K -14.98%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-04-23 11:39 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37% | 0.5% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91% | 0.5% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91% | 0.5% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91% | 0.5% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.26% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.74% | 2.8% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |
| Novig◎ | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.55% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.45% | 3.4% | 2026-04-23 11:45 |