StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Nuno Borges v Mariano Navone

Matchstart: 2026-04-23 11:50 UTC

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

59 spelbolag (20 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Nuno Borges (Hemma)

Prognos 37.29%2.68rättvist odds
EV +2.92%
Fördel +1.06%
Kelly +1.66%
Tillväxt +0.049%

med antagandet om högsta odds 2.76

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
34.52%37.10%37.50%39.15%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
2.302.512.502.7643.48%39.81%40.00%36.23%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Mariano Navone (Borta)

Prognos 62.71%1.59rättvist odds
EV -2.17%
Fördel -1.39%
Kelly -3.88%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 1.56

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
60.85%62.90%62.50%65.48%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
1.441.511.501.5669.44%66.44%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Nuno Borges (Hemma): 37.29%; Mariano Navone (Borta): 62.71%. För Nuno Borges (Hemma) motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 2.68. 2 spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån; bästa odds var 2.76, motsvarande ett positivt väntevärde på +2.92%.

Spelbolagsodds (59 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemma ▼BortaMarginalUppdaterat
Pinnacle🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 35.21%EV +2.92%E +1.06%K +1.66%G +0.049%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.79%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%2.9%2026-04-23 11:35
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +2.55%E +0.927%K +1.46%G +0.037%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -9.07%E -6.26%K -20.16%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 11:35
FanDuel🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -0.060%E -0.023%K -0.036%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -6.56%E -4.40%K -13.39%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-23 11:34
SportsBet🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%EV -0.806%E -0.303%K -0.486%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -7.19%E -4.86%K -14.98%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-23 11:34
BetOnline.ag🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -1.92%E -0.732%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-23 11:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.78%EV -1.92%E -0.732%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 63.22%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-23 11:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.32%EV -1.92%E -0.732%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.68%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-23 11:34
DraftKings🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.85%EV -1.92%E -0.732%K -1.18%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.15%EV -7.82%E -5.32%K -16.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-23 11:45
1xBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -2.30%E -0.877%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-23 11:39
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -2.30%E -0.877%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 11:45
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -2.30%E -0.877%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 11:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -2.30%E -0.877%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 11:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -2.30%E -0.877%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.04%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-23 11:45
Bet Right🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.04%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 11:34
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -3.04%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-23 11:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.04%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.19%E -4.86%K -14.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 11:33
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.04%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.19%E -4.86%K -14.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 11:34
Caesars🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -3.04%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.19%E -4.86%K -14.98%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-23 11:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -3.04%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 11:34
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -3.04%E -1.17%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -9.70%E -6.74%K -22.04%G +0.000%7.9%2026-04-23 11:34
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.80%EV -4.91%E -1.92%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 62.20%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-23 11:44
BetUS🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -4.91%E -1.92%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -3.43%E -2.23%K -6.35%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-23 11:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -4.91%E -1.92%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -6.56%E -4.40%K -13.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-23 11:34
Everygame🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -4.91%E -1.92%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -9.07%E -6.26%K -20.16%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 11:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.53%EV -5.65%E -2.23%K -3.70%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.47%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 11:39
NordicBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 11:39
Betsson🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 11:39
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.68%E -3.08%K -9.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-23 11:40
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 11:44
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 11:34
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 11:43
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 11:44
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-23 11:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.77%E -2.71%K -4.52%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -9.07%E -6.26%K -20.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-23 11:45
GTbets🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -2.17%E -1.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 11:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -2.17%E -1.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-23 11:34
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 11:39
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 11:39
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 11:40
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 11:40
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 11:39
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 11:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.80%E -1.81%K -5.09%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 11:39
Fliff🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -8.64%E -3.53%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -7.82%E -5.32%K -16.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 11:45
Bally Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -9.38%E -3.86%K -6.56%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -2.17%E -1.39%K -3.88%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-23 11:34
TABtouch🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -3.43%E -2.23%K -6.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 11:40
BetRivers🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -3.43%E -2.23%K -6.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-23 11:40
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 11:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 11:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 11:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 11:34
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 11:39
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.06%E -2.65%K -7.65%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-23 11:44
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.70%EV -6.56%E -4.40%K -13.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-23 11:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -10.50%E -4.38%K -7.50%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 61.86%EV -7.19%E -4.86%K -14.98%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 11:39
LeoVegas🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.82%EV -11.25%E -4.73%K -8.15%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.18%EV -5.31%E -3.52%K -10.41%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-23 11:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -12.37%E -5.26%K -9.16%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -5.94%E -3.96%K -11.87%G +0.000%9.2%2026-04-23 11:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.80%EV -12.37%E -5.26%K -9.16%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 61.20%EV -6.56%E -4.40%K -13.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-23 11:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -14.23%E -6.19%K -10.95%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 60.85%EV -7.19%E -4.86%K -14.98%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 11:39
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (6)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.96I 33.78%NM 33.63%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.37%0.5%2026-04-23 11:45
Matchbook2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%0.5%2026-04-23 11:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%0.5%2026-04-23 11:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%0.5%2026-04-23 11:45
Smarkets2.84I 35.21%NM 34.26%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.74%2.8%2026-04-23 11:45
Novig2.72I 36.76%NM 35.55%1.50I 66.67%NM 64.45%3.4%2026-04-23 11:45