Language:English
Jannik Sinner v Arthur Fils
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jannik Sinner (Local)
Prediction 83.32%1.20fair odd
EV -1.68%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -9.36%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.18
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.86%83.09%83.63%85.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.151.151.1890.09%86.79%86.96%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Arthur Fils (Visit)
Prediction 16.68%5.99fair odd
EV +8.43%
Edge +1.30%
Kelly +1.53%
Growth +0.129%
assuming max odds 6.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.59%16.91%16.37%19.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.415.256.5020.41%18.50%19.05%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jannik Sinner (Local): 83.32%; Arthur Fils (Visit): 16.68%. For Arthur Fils (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.99. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.43%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.70%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +8.43%E +1.30%K +1.53%G +0.129% | 4.7% | 2026-05-01 11:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -7.52%E -6.77%K -68.34%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +8.43%E +1.30%K +1.53%G +0.129% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 11:39 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -7.52%E -6.77%K -68.34%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV +6.76%E +1.06%K +1.25%G +0.085% | 5.7% | 2026-05-01 11:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -7.52%E -6.77%K -68.34%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV +3.43%E +0.553%K +0.659%G +0.023% | 6.2% | 2026-05-01 11:44 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.70%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 6.01I 16.64%NM 16.30%EV +0.258%E +0.043%K +0.052%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-05-01 08:10 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.80%EV -3.35%E -2.89%K -20.94%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.20%EV +0.091%E +0.015%K +0.018%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-01 11:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV +0.091%E +0.015%K +0.018%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-01 11:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV +0.091%E +0.015%K +0.018%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-01 11:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV +0.091%E +0.015%K +0.018%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-01 05:53 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +0.091%E +0.015%K +0.018%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-01 11:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000% | 5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV -0.576%E -0.097%K -0.116%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000% | 5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV -0.576%E -0.097%K -0.116%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.71%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000% | 5.86I 17.06%NM 16.29%EV -2.24%E -0.383%K -0.462%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-01 05:53 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -3.24%E -0.559%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-01 11:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -3.24%E -0.559%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-01 11:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.85%E -5.18%K -45.00%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -3.24%E -0.559%K -0.676%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-01 07:25 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -4.08%E -0.709%K -0.859%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 09:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -3.35%E -2.89%K -20.94%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -6.58%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-01 07:25 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.62%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.56I 17.99%NM 17.38%EV -7.25%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-01 03:10 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.41%EV -1.68%E -1.43%K -9.36%G +0.000% | 5.53I 18.08%NM 17.59%EV -7.75%E -1.40%K -1.71%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-01 11:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -8.25%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -8.25%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-01 05:53 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.25%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-01 11:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.25%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-01 11:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.85%E -5.18%K -45.00%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -8.25%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.70%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -8.25%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.70%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -8.25%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.43%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000% | 5.35I 18.69%NM 17.57%EV -10.75%E -2.01%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-01 10:59 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -3.35%E -2.89%K -20.94%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -12.42%E -2.37%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -12.42%E -2.37%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -12.42%E -2.37%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-01 11:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 01:44 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 01:43 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 01:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 01:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 01:44 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 01:44 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 01:44 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 01:44 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 01:44 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 01:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 01:44 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 01:44 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 01:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 01:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -3.35%E -2.89%K -20.94%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-01 00:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-30 23:59 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-01 08:08 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -3.35%E -2.89%K -20.94%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -18.26%E -3.73%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-01 01:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -3.35%E -2.89%K -20.94%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -18.26%E -3.73%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-01 01:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -3.35%E -2.89%K -20.94%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -18.26%E -3.73%K -4.68%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-01 01:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-05-01 11:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-05-01 11:39 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-05-01 11:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57% | 0.4% | 2026-05-01 11:25 |
| Novig◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.90% | 6.58I 15.20%NM 15.10% | 0.7% | 2026-05-01 11:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 84.24% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.76% | 2.3% | 2026-05-01 11:40 |