Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Jannik Sinner v Arthur Fils

Início: 2026-05-01 14:00 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

58 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Jannik Sinner (Local)

Previsão 83.32%1.20odd justa
EV -1.68%
Vantagem -1.43%
Kelly -9.36%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.18

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
80.86%83.09%83.63%85.41%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.111.151.151.1890.09%86.79%86.96%84.75%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Arthur Fils (Visitante)

Previsão 16.68%5.99odd justa
EV +8.43%
Vantagem +1.30%
Kelly +1.53%
Crescimento +0.129%

pressupondo odds máximas de 6.50

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
14.59%16.91%16.37%19.14%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
4.905.415.256.5020.41%18.50%19.05%15.38%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Jannik Sinner (Local): 83.32%; Arthur Fils (Visitante): 16.68%. Para Arthur Fils (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 5.99. 10 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 6.50, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +8.43%.

Odds das casas de apostas (58 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
FanDuel🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.70%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV +8.43%E +1.30%K +1.53%G +0.129%4.7%2026-05-01 11:40
Paddy Power🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -7.52%E -6.77%K -68.34%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +8.43%E +1.30%K +1.53%G +0.129%5.5%2026-05-01 11:39
SportsBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 85.22%EV -7.52%E -6.77%K -68.34%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.78%EV +6.76%E +1.06%K +1.25%G +0.085%5.7%2026-05-01 11:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -7.52%E -6.77%K -68.34%G +0.000%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV +3.43%E +0.553%K +0.659%G +0.023%6.2%2026-05-01 11:44
Pinnacle🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 83.70%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%6.01I 16.64%NM 16.30%EV +0.258%E +0.043%K +0.052%G +0.000%2.1%2026-05-01 08:10
Coolbet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 83.80%EV -3.35%E -2.89%K -20.94%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.20%EV +0.091%E +0.015%K +0.018%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-01 11:39
Unibet (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV +0.091%E +0.015%K +0.018%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-01 11:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV +0.091%E +0.015%K +0.018%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-01 11:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV +0.091%E +0.015%K +0.018%G +0.000%3.6%2026-05-01 05:53
Fanatics🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV +0.091%E +0.015%K +0.018%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-01 11:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000%5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV -0.576%E -0.097%K -0.116%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-30 23:59
BetOnline.ag🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.94%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000%5.96I 16.78%NM 16.06%EV -0.576%E -0.097%K -0.116%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-01 00:00
DraftKings🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.71%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000%5.86I 17.06%NM 16.29%EV -2.24%E -0.383%K -0.462%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-01 05:53
NordicBet🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -3.24%E -0.559%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-01 11:40
Betsson🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -3.24%E -0.559%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-01 11:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.85%E -5.18%K -45.00%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -3.24%E -0.559%K -0.676%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-01 07:25
BetUS🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -4.08%E -0.709%K -0.859%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-01 09:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -3.35%E -2.89%K -20.94%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -6.58%E -1.18%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-01 07:25
GTbets🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 82.62%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.38%EV -7.25%E -1.30%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-01 03:10
1xBet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 82.41%EV -1.68%E -1.43%K -9.36%G +0.000%5.53I 18.08%NM 17.59%EV -7.75%E -1.40%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-01 11:45
Betway🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -8.25%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-01 00:00
Bet Right🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -8.25%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-01 05:53
Betr (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.25%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-01 11:45
888sport🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -8.25%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-01 11:39
TAB🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.85%E -5.18%K -45.00%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -8.25%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-01 00:00
Caesars🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.70%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -8.25%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-01 00:00
Everygame🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.68%E -5.97%K -55.70%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -8.25%E -1.50%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-30 23:59
Fliff🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.43%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000%5.35I 18.69%NM 17.57%EV -10.75%E -2.01%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-01 10:59
BetMGM🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -3.35%E -2.89%K -20.94%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -12.42%E -2.37%K -2.92%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-30 23:59
PlayUp🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -12.42%E -2.37%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-01 00:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -12.42%E -2.37%K -2.92%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-01 11:40
Unibet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 01:44
Casumo🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 01:43
Unibet (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 01:45
LeoVegas🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 01:44
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 01:44
BetRivers🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 01:44
Unibet (NL)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 01:44
TABtouch🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 01:44
Grosvenor🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 01:44
BoyleSports🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-30 23:59
William Hill🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 00:00
Bally Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 01:45
betPARX🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 01:44
ATG (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 01:44
Svenska Spel🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 01:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 01:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-30 23:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -2.52%E -2.15%K -14.81%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-01 00:00
theScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -3.35%E -2.89%K -20.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 00:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-01 00:00
Neds🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-01 00:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-01 00:00
Coral🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -4.18%E -3.64%K -27.89%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-30 23:59
Bet Victor🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -5.02%E -4.40%K -35.84%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -16.59%E -3.32%K -4.15%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-01 08:08
PMU (FR)🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -3.35%E -2.89%K -20.94%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -18.26%E -3.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-01 01:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -3.35%E -2.89%K -20.94%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -18.26%E -3.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-01 01:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -3.35%E -2.89%K -20.94%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -18.26%E -3.73%K -4.68%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-01 01:44
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57%0.4%2026-05-01 11:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57%0.4%2026-05-01 11:39
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57%0.4%2026-05-01 11:45
Matchbook1.18I 84.75%NM 84.43%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.57%0.4%2026-05-01 11:25
Novig1.17I 85.47%NM 84.90%6.58I 15.20%NM 15.10%0.7%2026-05-01 11:25
Smarkets1.16I 86.21%NM 84.24%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.76%2.3%2026-05-01 11:40