Language:English
Thiago Agustin Tirante v Gianluca Cadenasso
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local)
Prediction 66.24%1.51fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -2.72%
Kelly -8.77%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.63%66.34%66.20%69.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.421.421.4572.99%70.35%70.42%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Gianluca Cadenasso (Visit)
Prediction 33.76%2.96fair odd
EV +5.66%
Edge +1.81%
Kelly +2.66%
Growth +0.150%
assuming max odds 3.13
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.44%33.66%33.80%35.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.652.832.843.1337.74%35.33%35.15%31.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local): 66.24%; Gianluca Cadenasso (Visit): 33.76%. For Gianluca Cadenasso (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.13, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.66%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.56%EV -9.25%E -6.75%K -24.99%G +0.000% | 3.13I 31.95%NM 30.44%EV +5.66%E +1.81%K +2.66%G +0.150% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 15:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.20%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -0.419%E -0.142%K -0.215%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.89%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 33.11%EV -1.09%E -0.373%K -0.567%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.93%E -4.18%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 14:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.93%E -4.18%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.27%E -3.69%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.78%E -0.966%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.93%E -4.18%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -2.78%E -0.966%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -5.27%E -3.69%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -3.46%E -1.21%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.93%E -4.18%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.79%E -1.33%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.93%E -4.18%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.79%E -1.33%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -3.79%E -1.33%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -3.79%E -1.33%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -4.13%E -1.46%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -4.13%E -1.46%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.43%EV -5.27%E -3.69%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.83I 35.34%NM 33.57%EV -4.47%E -1.58%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 15:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 66.67%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000% | 2.82I 35.46%NM 33.33%EV -4.81%E -1.70%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.27%E -3.69%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.93%E -4.18%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-07 14:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.17%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.17%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.17%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.17%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.17%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-07 14:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.17%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-07 15:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.86%E -3.28%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -5.93%E -4.18%K -14.13%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -8.86%E -3.28%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.86%E -3.28%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.86%E -3.28%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -10.55%E -3.98%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 14:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.55%E -3.98%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.55%E -3.98%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.55%E -3.98%K -6.39%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02% | 0.8% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57% | 2.2% | 2026-05-07 15:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07% | 2.2% | 2026-05-07 15:10 |