A Escola das Odds

Thiago Agustin Tirante v Gianluca Cadenasso

Início: 2026-05-07 15:15 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

58 casas de apostas (22 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Thiago Agustin Tirante (Local)

Previsão 66.24%1.51odd justa
EV -3.95%
Vantagem -2.72%
Kelly -8.77%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.45

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
64.63%66.34%66.20%69.56%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.371.421.421.4572.99%70.35%70.42%68.97%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Gianluca Cadenasso (Visitante)

Previsão 33.76%2.96odd justa
EV +5.66%
Vantagem +1.81%
Kelly +2.66%
Crescimento +0.150%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.13

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
30.44%33.66%33.80%35.37%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.652.832.843.1337.74%35.33%35.15%31.95%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (58 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
DraftKings1.37I 72.99%NM 69.56%EV -9.25%E -6.75%K -24.99%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.44%EV +5.66%E +1.81%K +2.66%G +0.150%4.9%2026-05-07 15:05
Winamax (DE)1.44I 69.44%NM 67.20%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.80%EV -0.419%E -0.142%K -0.215%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-07 14:55
Pinnacle1.45I 68.97%NM 66.89%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.93I 34.13%NM 33.11%EV -1.09%E -0.373%K -0.567%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-07 14:55
Betclic (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.93%E -4.18%K -14.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 14:54
Hard Rock Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -5.93%E -4.18%K -14.13%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 14:55
Unibet1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
BetRivers1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
Unibet (NL)1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
LeoVegas1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
Unibet (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
TABtouch1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
Casumo1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
Grosvenor1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
Svenska Spel1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
betPARX1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
ATG (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
Bally Bet1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 14:55
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 14:55
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 14:55
888sport (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -2.11%E -0.727%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 14:55
FanDuel1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.27%E -3.69%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -2.78%E -0.966%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-07 14:55
Bet Right1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -5.93%E -4.18%K -14.13%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -2.78%E -0.966%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 14:55
SportsBet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.67%EV -5.27%E -3.69%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.33%EV -3.46%E -1.21%K -1.86%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 14:55
Winamax (FR)1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.93%E -4.18%K -14.13%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.79%E -1.33%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 14:55
Marathon Bet1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -5.93%E -4.18%K -14.13%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -3.79%E -1.33%K -2.05%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 14:55
PMU (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -3.79%E -1.33%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-07 14:55
Betr (AU)1.41I 70.92%NM 66.90%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.10%EV -3.79%E -1.33%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-07 14:55
BetOnline.ag1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -4.13%E -1.46%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-07 14:55
LowVig.ag1.45I 68.97%NM 66.20%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.84I 35.21%NM 33.80%EV -4.13%E -1.46%K -2.25%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-07 14:55
1xBet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.43%EV -5.27%E -3.69%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.57%EV -4.47%E -1.58%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 15:00
NetBet (FR)1.41I 70.92%NM 66.67%EV -6.60%E -4.68%K -16.09%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.33%EV -4.81%E -1.70%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-07 14:55
Betsson1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-07 14:55
NordicBet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-07 14:55
Unibet (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-07 14:55
BetUS1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-07 14:55
ReBet1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-07 14:55
Fanatics1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 14:55
theScore Bet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.27%E -3.69%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-07 14:55
PlayUp1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.93%E -4.18%K -14.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-07 14:55
LiveScore Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 14:55
Virgin Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 14:55
Paddy Power1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.48%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-07 14:54
Betway1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.17%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 14:55
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.17%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 14:55
Codere (IT)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.17%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 14:55
BetMGM1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -7.17%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 14:55
Everygame1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.17%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-07 14:54
Bet Victor1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.17%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-07 15:04
Ladbrokes (UK)1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -8.86%E -3.28%K -5.21%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-07 14:55
TAB1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -5.93%E -4.18%K -14.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -8.86%E -3.28%K -5.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-07 14:55
Coral1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.86%E -3.28%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-07 14:55
Tipico (DE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.26%E -5.18%K -18.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -8.86%E -3.28%K -5.21%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-07 14:55
Caesars1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -3.95%E -2.72%K -8.77%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -10.55%E -3.98%K -6.39%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 14:54
PointsBet (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.55%E -3.98%K -6.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-07 14:55
Neds1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.55%E -3.98%K -6.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-07 14:55
Ladbrokes (AU)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -4.61%E -3.20%K -10.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -10.55%E -3.98%K -6.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-07 14:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-05-07 14:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87%1.2%2026-05-07 14:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87%1.2%2026-05-07 14:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.45I 68.97%NM 68.13%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.87%1.2%2026-05-07 14:55
Novig1.43I 69.93%NM 68.43%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.57%2.2%2026-05-07 15:10
Smarkets1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07%2.2%2026-05-07 15:10