Language:English
Sebastian Ofner v Alex Michelsen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Sebastian Ofner (Local)
Prediction 60.72%1.65fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -2.64%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.28%60.75%60.76%62.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.561.551.6266.67%64.18%64.52%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex Michelsen (Visit)
Prediction 39.28%2.55fair odd
EV +0.172%
Edge +0.067%
Kelly +0.111%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.62%39.25%39.24%40.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.412.402.5543.48%41.53%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sebastian Ofner (Local): 60.72%; Alex Michelsen (Visit): 39.28%. For Alex Michelsen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.546. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.550, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.172%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV +0.172%E +0.067%K +0.111%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.38%EV -7.71%E -5.07%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.62%EV -1.01%E -0.399%K -0.662%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-07 17:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.46%E -2.18%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -1.79%E -0.717%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-07 17:04 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.71%E -5.07%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -1.79%E -0.717%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 16:44 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -3.36%E -1.37%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -6.50%E -4.22%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.10%EV -1.64%E -1.01%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.90%EV -4.15%E -1.70%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-05-07 16:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -4.15%E -1.70%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 16:44 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -4.15%E -1.70%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.54%E -1.87%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.94%E -2.04%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 16:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.94%E -2.04%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.94%E -2.04%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 17:05 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.86%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.14%EV -5.33%E -2.21%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -1.64%E -1.01%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-07 16:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -1.64%E -1.01%K -2.64%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-07 16:50 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.46%E -2.18%K -5.86%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-07 16:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 17:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.50%E -4.22%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.50%E -4.22%K -12.03%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 17:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.40%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.40%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.40%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.51%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-07 16:44 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.51%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-07 16:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.51%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-07 16:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.51%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-07 16:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.51%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-07 16:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.40%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.51%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-07 16:53 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -2.85%E -1.78%K -4.75%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -6.90%E -2.91%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-07 17:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -6.90%E -2.91%K -5.04%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 16:50 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.07%E -2.57%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 16:50 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.07%E -2.57%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 17:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 16:44 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -7.71%E -5.07%K -14.83%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.85%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.07%E -2.57%K -7.01%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -9.65%E -4.20%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 16:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.65%E -4.20%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.65%E -4.20%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.65%E -4.20%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 17:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.65%E -4.20%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.65%E -4.20%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 16:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23% | 0.3% | 2026-05-07 17:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 0.7% | 2026-05-07 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 0.7% | 2026-05-07 17:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09% | 0.7% | 2026-05-07 17:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.62I 61.73%NM 61.15% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 38.85% | 0.9% | 2026-05-07 17:10 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17% | 2.1% | 2026-05-07 17:15 |