A Escola das Odds

Sebastian Ofner v Alex Michelsen

Início: 2026-05-07 17:20 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

60 casas de apostas (23 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Sebastian Ofner (Local)

Previsão 60.72%1.65odd justa
EV -1.64%
Vantagem -1.01%
Kelly -2.64%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.62

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
59.28%60.75%60.76%62.38%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.501.561.551.6266.67%64.18%64.52%61.73%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Alex Michelsen (Visitante)

Previsão 39.28%2.55odd justa
EV +0.172%
Vantagem +0.067%
Kelly +0.111%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.55

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
37.62%39.25%39.24%40.72%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.302.412.402.5543.48%41.53%41.67%39.22%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (60 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
Winamax (DE)1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV +0.172%E +0.067%K +0.111%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-07 16:45
Marathon Bet1.52I 65.79%NM 62.38%EV -7.71%E -5.07%K -14.83%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.62%EV -1.01%E -0.399%K -0.662%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 17:15
Coolbet1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.46%E -2.18%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -1.79%E -0.717%K -1.19%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-07 17:04
Winamax (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -7.71%E -5.07%K -14.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -1.79%E -0.717%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 16:44
FanDuel1.56I 64.10%NM 61.19%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.81%EV -3.36%E -1.37%K -2.30%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-07 16:45
Fanatics1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-07 16:45
Hard Rock Bet1.56I 64.10%NM 61.10%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.90%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 16:45
BetRivers1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 16:45
Unibet (NL)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 16:45
Casumo1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 16:45
LeoVegas1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 16:45
TABtouch1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 16:45
Grosvenor1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 16:45
Unibet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 16:45
Unibet (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 16:45
LeoVegas (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 16:45
betPARX1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 16:45
Bally Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 16:45
Svenska Spel1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 16:45
ATG (SE)1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 16:45
theScore Bet1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -6.50%E -4.22%K -12.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -3.76%E -1.53%K -2.59%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 16:45
Pinnacle1.62I 61.73%NM 60.10%EV -1.64%E -1.01%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.90%EV -4.15%E -1.70%K -2.88%G +0.000%2.7%2026-05-07 16:55
SportsBet1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -4.15%E -1.70%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 16:44
ReBet1.56I 64.10%NM 61.00%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.00%EV -4.15%E -1.70%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 16:45
Unibet (UK)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%EV -4.54%E -1.87%K -3.18%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 16:45
Betsson1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.94%E -2.04%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-07 16:44
NordicBet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -4.94%E -2.04%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-07 16:45
Bet Right1.56I 64.10%NM 60.80%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.20%EV -4.94%E -2.04%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 17:05
Codere (IT)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.86%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.14%EV -5.33%E -2.21%K -3.78%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-07 16:45
LowVig.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -1.64%E -1.01%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-07 16:50
BetOnline.ag1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -1.64%E -1.01%K -2.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-07 16:50
BetUS1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -3.46%E -2.18%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-07 16:54
PointsBet (AU)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 16:45
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 17:10
Betway1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 16:45
PMU (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.50%E -4.22%K -12.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 16:45
Betclic (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -6.50%E -4.22%K -12.03%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 17:15
Virgin Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-07 16:45
LiveScore Bet1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-07 16:45
Paddy Power1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.72%E -2.38%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-07 16:45
BoyleSports1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.51%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-07 16:44
888sport1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.51%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-07 16:50
William Hill1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.51%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-07 16:49
Mr Green (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.51%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-07 16:50
888sport (SE)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.51%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-07 16:50
Bet Victor1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -7.10%E -4.64%K -13.40%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -6.51%E -2.73%K -4.71%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-07 16:53
DraftKings1.60I 62.50%NM 59.70%EV -2.85%E -1.78%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.30%EV -6.90%E -2.91%K -5.04%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-07 17:15
NetBet (FR)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV -6.90%E -2.91%K -5.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 16:50
PlayUp1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.07%E -2.57%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 16:50
Unibet (FR)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -4.07%E -2.57%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 17:15
BetMGM1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 16:44
Caesars1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.28%E -3.39%K -9.43%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-07 16:45
Tipico (DE)1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -7.71%E -5.07%K -14.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-07 16:45
1xBet1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -8.92%E -5.95%K -17.85%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.68%E -3.27%K -5.69%G +0.000%9.2%2026-05-07 16:45
TAB1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -4.07%E -2.57%K -7.01%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -9.65%E -4.20%K -7.42%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-07 16:50
Neds1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.65%E -4.20%K -7.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-07 16:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -4.67%E -2.98%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -9.65%E -4.20%K -7.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-07 16:45
Everygame1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.65%E -4.20%K -7.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-07 17:10
Coral1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.65%E -4.20%K -7.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-07 16:45
Ladbrokes (UK)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -5.89%E -3.80%K -10.71%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -9.65%E -4.20%K -7.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-07 16:45
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook1.64I 60.98%NM 60.77%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.23%0.3%2026-05-07 17:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%0.7%2026-05-07 17:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%0.7%2026-05-07 17:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.63I 61.35%NM 60.91%2.54I 39.37%NM 39.09%0.7%2026-05-07 17:15
Novig1.62I 61.73%NM 61.15%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.85%0.9%2026-05-07 17:10
Smarkets1.61I 62.11%NM 60.83%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.17%2.1%2026-05-07 17:15