Language:English
Matteo Arnaldi v Jaume Munar
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matteo Arnaldi (Local)
Prediction 56.95%1.76fair odd
EV -1.48%
Edge -0.857%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%56.87%56.92%58.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.671.671.7361.73%59.92%59.88%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jaume Munar (Visit)
Prediction 43.05%2.32fair odd
EV +1.18%
Edge +0.500%
Kelly +0.870%
Growth +0.010%
assuming max odds 2.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.25%43.13%43.08%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.192.202.3547.62%45.69%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matteo Arnaldi (Local): 56.95%; Jaume Munar (Visit): 43.05%. For Jaume Munar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.18%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV +1.18%E +0.500%K +0.870%G +0.010% | 3.2% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -7.18%E -4.40%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -2.27%E -1.000%K -1.79%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-06 13:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -5.47%E -3.29%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -2.70%E -1.19%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-06 13:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.33%E -2.58%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -3.13%E -1.39%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.13%E -1.39%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.13%E -1.39%K -2.50%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -3.76%E -2.22%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -3.56%E -1.59%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -3.76%E -2.22%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -3.56%E -1.59%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -3.56%E -1.59%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -2.05%E -1.19%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-06 13:14 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -2.05%E -1.19%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.47%E -3.29%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.47%E -3.29%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.47%E -3.29%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.47%E -3.29%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.24%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.76%E -2.22%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -4.42%E -1.99%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -4.85%E -2.20%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-06 13:20 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:09 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 13:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.47%E -3.29%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -5.47%E -3.29%K -8.29%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -6.14%E -2.82%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-06 13:27 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -6.14%E -2.82%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -3.19%E -1.88%K -4.56%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -6.57%E -3.03%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -6.61%E -4.03%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -6.57%E -3.03%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -6.61%E -4.03%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -6.57%E -3.03%K -5.62%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.33%E -2.58%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-06 13:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-06 13:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.88%EV -7.18%E -4.40%K -11.39%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-06 13:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.75%E -4.78%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-06 13:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.48%E -0.857%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.48%E -0.857%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.48%E -0.857%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.48%E -0.857%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-06 13:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70% | 0.4% | 2026-05-06 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78% | 0.6% | 2026-05-06 13:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78% | 0.6% | 2026-05-06 13:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42% | 1.0% | 2026-05-06 13:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.50% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.50% | 1.2% | 2026-05-06 13:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.75% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 44.25% | 1.3% | 2026-05-06 13:15 |