A Escola das Odds

Matteo Arnaldi v Jaume Munar

Início: 2026-05-06 13:40 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

60 casas de apostas (22 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Matteo Arnaldi (Local)

Previsão 56.95%1.76odd justa
EV -1.48%
Vantagem -0.857%
Kelly -2.03%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.73

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
54.83%56.87%56.92%58.75%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.621.671.671.7361.73%59.92%59.88%57.80%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Jaume Munar (Visitante)

Previsão 43.05%2.32odd justa
EV +1.18%
Vantagem +0.500%
Kelly +0.870%
Crescimento +0.010%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.35

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
41.25%43.13%43.08%45.17%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.102.192.202.3547.62%45.69%45.45%42.55%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (60 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
Bet Right1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV +1.18%E +0.500%K +0.870%G +0.010%3.2%2026-05-06 13:15
Marathon Bet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -7.18%E -4.40%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -2.27%E -1.000%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-06 13:20
FanDuel1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -5.47%E -3.29%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -2.70%E -1.19%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-06 13:19
Winamax (DE)1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -4.33%E -2.58%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -3.13%E -1.39%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-06 13:15
Fanatics1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -3.13%E -1.39%K -2.50%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-06 13:15
theScore Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -3.13%E -1.39%K -2.50%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 13:15
LowVig.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -3.76%E -2.22%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -3.56%E -1.59%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-06 13:15
BetOnline.ag1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -3.76%E -2.22%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -3.56%E -1.59%K -2.87%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-06 13:15
Unibet (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -3.56%E -1.59%K -2.87%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-06 13:15
Coolbet1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -2.05%E -1.19%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-06 13:14
Pinnacle1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -2.05%E -1.19%K -2.85%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-06 13:15
SportsBet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.47%E -3.29%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 13:15
NordicBet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.47%E -3.29%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 13:15
Betsson1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.47%E -3.29%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 13:15
ReBet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -5.47%E -3.29%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -3.99%E -1.79%K -3.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-06 13:15
GTbets1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -3.76%E -2.22%K -5.45%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -4.42%E -1.99%K -3.62%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-06 13:15
Codere (IT)1.65I 60.61%NM 57.25%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.75%EV -4.85%E -2.20%K -4.01%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-06 13:20
BetRivers1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:15
Unibet (NL)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:15
BoyleSports1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:19
PointsBet (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:15
Casumo1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:15
LeoVegas1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:15
TABtouch1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:15
Grosvenor1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:15
Unibet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:15
Unibet (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:15
LeoVegas (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:15
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:15
Caesars1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:09
betPARX1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:15
Bally Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:15
Svenska Spel1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:15
ATG (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:15
Hard Rock Bet1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:14
BetUS1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 13:29
Winamax (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.47%E -3.29%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-06 13:15
Betway1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.28%E -2.40%K -4.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-06 13:15
Betclic (FR)1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -5.47%E -3.29%K -8.29%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -6.14%E -2.82%K -5.21%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-06 13:27
PMU (FR)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -6.14%E -2.82%K -5.21%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-06 13:15
DraftKings1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -3.19%E -1.88%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -6.57%E -3.03%K -5.62%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-06 13:15
Virgin Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -6.61%E -4.03%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -6.57%E -3.03%K -5.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 13:15
LiveScore Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -6.61%E -4.03%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -6.57%E -3.03%K -5.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 13:15
PlayUp1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -4.33%E -2.58%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-06 13:15
Betr (AU)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-06 13:15
BetMGM1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-06 13:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 13:15
TAB1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 13:14
Fliff1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 13:20
Unibet (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 56.88%EV -7.18%E -4.40%K -11.39%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-06 13:29
Tipico (DE)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.75%E -4.78%K -12.49%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.44%E -3.46%K -6.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 13:20
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.48%E -0.857%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-06 13:15
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.48%E -0.857%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-06 13:15
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.48%E -0.857%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-06 13:15
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.48%E -0.857%K -2.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-06 13:15
Bet Victor1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.90%E -2.93%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-06 13:24
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 13:15
Everygame1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 13:15
Neds1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 13:15
Ladbrokes (AU)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.04%E -3.66%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.59%E -4.57%K -8.72%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-06 13:15
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70%0.4%2026-05-06 13:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-05-06 13:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.80I 55.56%NM 55.22%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.78%0.6%2026-05-06 13:30
Matchbook1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58%2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42%1.0%2026-05-06 13:30
Smarkets1.78I 56.18%NM 55.50%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.50%1.2%2026-05-06 13:20
Novig1.77I 56.50%NM 55.75%2.23I 44.84%NM 44.25%1.3%2026-05-06 13:15