Language:English
Marco Trungelliti v Zachary Svajda
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marco Trungelliti (Local)
Prediction 69.57%1.44fair odd
EV -1.21%
Edge -0.849%
Kelly -2.87%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.95%69.41%69.51%71.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.361.361.4275.76%73.40%73.53%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Zachary Svajda (Visit)
Prediction 30.43%3.29fair odd
EV +1.62%
Edge +0.486%
Kelly +0.694%
Growth +0.011%
assuming max odds 3.34
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.48%30.59%30.49%34.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.113.113.3436.36%32.18%32.15%29.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marco Trungelliti (Local): 69.57%; Zachary Svajda (Visit): 30.43%. For Zachary Svajda (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.29. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.34, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.62%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -7.47%E -5.61%K -22.63%G +0.000% | 3.34I 29.94%NM 28.48%EV +1.62%E +0.486%K +0.694%G +0.011% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 09:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +0.407%E +0.123%K +0.177%G +0.001% | 4.4% | 2026-05-06 09:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.47%E -5.61%K -22.63%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +0.407%E +0.123%K +0.177%G +0.001% | 5.5% | 2026-05-06 09:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.35%EV -4.68%E -3.42%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -1.11%E -0.343%K -0.495%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.98%EV -3.29%E -2.37%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 3.24I 30.86%NM 30.02%EV -1.42%E -0.438%K -0.633%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-06 09:50 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.64%E -0.824%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-06 07:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -2.60%E -1.85%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-06 05:24 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.99%E -2.89%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-06 09:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.68%E -3.42%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.68%E -3.42%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.68%E -3.42%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.68%E -3.42%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:09 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:09 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:09 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 07:10 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -6.77%E -5.05%K -19.92%G +0.000% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 10:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.47%EV -3.99%E -2.89%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.53%EV -4.46%E -1.42%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.47%EV -3.99%E -2.89%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.14I 31.85%NM 30.53%EV -4.46%E -1.42%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.36%EV -5.07%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-06 08:30 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.29%E -2.37%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-06 07:25 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.68%E -3.42%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 09:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.68%E -3.42%K -12.66%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 08:30 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 09:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 09:18 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 05:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 09:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 09:04 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 09:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 09:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -8.16%E -6.18%K -25.51%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-06 06:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-06 10:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-06 06:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-06 06:45 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-06 10:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-06 06:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.99%E -2.89%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 07:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.99%E -2.89%K -10.50%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-06 07:34 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-06 09:19 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-06 05:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-06 05:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-06 05:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-06 05:29 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.47%E -5.61%K -22.63%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-06 09:38 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -2.60%E -1.85%K -6.49%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -9.33%E -3.13%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 06:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -11.76%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-06 07:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -1.21%E -0.849%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -16.33%E -5.94%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-05 23:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 0.7% | 2026-05-06 10:09 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 0.7% | 2026-05-06 10:10 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94% | 1.2% | 2026-05-06 10:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94% | 1.2% | 2026-05-06 10:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 70.04% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.96% | 2.7% | 2026-05-06 10:10 |
| Novig◎ | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.75% | 3.29I 30.40%NM 29.25% | 3.9% | 2026-05-06 10:10 |