Modelo predefinidoMédia interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Marco Trungelliti v Zachary Svajda

Início: 2026-05-06 10:20 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

60 casas de apostas (22 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: Média interquartílica (Lista Curada)

Marco Trungelliti (Local)

Previsão 69.57%1.44odd justa
EV -1.21%
Vantagem -0.849%
Kelly -2.87%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.42

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
65.95%69.41%69.51%71.52%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
1.321.361.361.4275.76%73.40%73.53%70.42%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Zachary Svajda (Visitante)

Previsão 30.43%3.29odd justa
EV +1.62%
Vantagem +0.486%
Kelly +0.694%
Crescimento +0.011%

pressupondo odds máximas de 3.34

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
28.48%30.59%30.49%34.05%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribuição das odds
2.753.113.113.3436.36%32.18%32.15%29.94%MÍN.MÉDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Nas últimas odds antes do início, Média interquartílica (Lista Curada) estimava para Frente a frente: Marco Trungelliti (Local): 69.57%; Zachary Svajda (Visitante): 30.43%. Para Zachary Svajda (Visitante), essa estimativa equivalia a odds decimais justas de 3.29. 3 casas de apostas ofereciam odds de fecho acima desse nível; as melhores eram 3.34, correspondendo a um valor esperado positivo de +1.62%.

Odds das casas de apostas (60 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
SportsBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -7.47%E -5.61%K -22.63%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 28.48%EV +1.62%E +0.486%K +0.694%G +0.011%5.1%2026-05-06 09:40
FanDuel🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.97%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.03%EV +0.407%E +0.123%K +0.177%G +0.001%4.4%2026-05-06 09:49
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -7.47%E -5.61%K -22.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +0.407%E +0.123%K +0.177%G +0.001%5.5%2026-05-06 09:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.35%EV -4.68%E -3.42%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.65%EV -1.11%E -0.343%K -0.495%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-06 09:20
Pinnacle🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.98%EV -3.29%E -2.37%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 30.02%EV -1.42%E -0.438%K -0.633%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-06 09:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.64%E -0.824%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-06 07:09
Coolbet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 69.23%EV -2.60%E -1.85%K -6.49%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.77%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.2%2026-05-06 05:24
BetUS🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.99%E -2.89%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-06 09:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.68%E -3.42%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-06 09:19
ReBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.68%E -3.42%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-06 09:20
Betsson🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.68%E -3.42%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-06 09:19
NordicBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.69%EV -4.68%E -3.42%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.31%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-06 09:19
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 07:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 07:10
Casumo🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 07:09
LeoVegas🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 07:10
TABtouch🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 07:09
Grosvenor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 07:10
Unibet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 07:10
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 07:10
Bally Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 07:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 07:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 07:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 07:10
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 07:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 09:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.16%EV -6.77%E -5.05%K -19.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -4.16%E -1.32%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-06 10:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.47%EV -3.99%E -2.89%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.53%EV -4.46%E -1.42%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-06 09:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.47%EV -3.99%E -2.89%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.53%EV -4.46%E -1.42%K -2.08%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-06 09:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.64%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 30.36%EV -5.07%E -1.62%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-06 08:30
GTbets🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.29%E -2.37%K -8.44%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-06 07:25
Bet Right🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.68%E -3.42%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 09:05
1xBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.68%E -3.42%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-06 08:30
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-06 09:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-06 09:19
Fanatics🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-06 09:20
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-06 09:18
Codere (IT)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-06 09:19
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-06 05:29
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-06 09:05
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-06 09:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-06 09:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-06 09:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.14%EV -8.16%E -6.18%K -25.51%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -5.68%E -1.83%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-06 06:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-06 10:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-06 06:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-06 06:45
Unibet (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-06 10:14
LiveScore Bet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -7.20%E -2.36%K -3.51%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-06 06:45
PlayUp🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.99%E -2.89%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-06 07:40
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.99%E -2.89%K -10.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-06 07:34
TAB🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-06 09:19
Neds🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-06 05:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-06 05:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-06 05:30
Coral🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -6.08%E -4.50%K -17.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-06 05:29
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.47%E -5.61%K -22.63%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -8.72%E -2.91%K -4.36%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-06 09:38
DraftKings🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV -2.60%E -1.85%K -6.49%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -9.33%E -3.13%K -4.71%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-06 06:39
Everygame🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -5.38%E -3.96%K -14.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -11.76%E -4.06%K -6.19%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-06 07:39
Caesars🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -1.21%E -0.849%K -2.87%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -16.33%E -5.94%K -9.33%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-05 23:55
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-05-06 10:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92%3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08%0.7%2026-05-06 10:10
Matchbook1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%1.2%2026-05-06 10:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%1.2%2026-05-06 10:15
Smarkets1.39I 71.94%NM 70.04%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.96%2.7%2026-05-06 10:10
Novig1.36I 73.53%NM 70.75%3.29I 30.40%NM 29.25%3.9%2026-05-06 10:10