Language:English
Jannik Sinner v Casper Ruud
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Jannik Sinner (Local)
Prediction 83.88%1.19fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -10.94%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
81.57%83.86%83.82%85.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.101.141.141.1790.91%87.77%87.72%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Casper Ruud (Visit)
Prediction 16.12%6.20fair odd
EV +8.00%
Edge +1.19%
Kelly +1.40%
Growth +0.112%
assuming max odds 6.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
14.21%16.14%16.18%18.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.005.805.756.7020.00%17.26%17.39%14.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jannik Sinner (Local): 83.88%; Casper Ruud (Visit): 16.12%. For Casper Ruud (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.20. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.00%.
Sportsbook Odds (63 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 85.68%EV -6.05%E -5.41%K -50.45%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.32%EV +8.00%E +1.19%K +1.40%G +0.112% | 4.2% | 2026-05-17 14:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.79%EV -6.89%E -6.21%K -62.66%G +0.000% | 6.70I 14.93%NM 14.21%EV +8.00%E +1.19%K +1.40%G +0.112% | 5.0% | 2026-05-17 14:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.89%E -6.21%K -62.66%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +4.78%E +0.735%K +0.869%G +0.041% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 14:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.89%E -6.21%K -62.66%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +4.78%E +0.735%K +0.869%G +0.041% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 14:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -6.89%E -6.21%K -62.66%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +4.78%E +0.735%K +0.869%G +0.041% | 5.5% | 2026-05-17 14:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.56%EV -3.54%E -3.08%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 6.30I 15.87%NM 15.44%EV +1.55%E +0.247%K +0.293%G +0.005% | 2.8% | 2026-05-17 14:29 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.46%EV -3.54%E -3.08%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.54%EV +0.747%E +0.120%K +0.142%G +0.001% | 3.0% | 2026-05-17 14:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 84.46%EV -3.54%E -3.08%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.54%EV +0.747%E +0.120%K +0.142%G +0.001% | 3.0% | 2026-05-17 14:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 84.82%EV -6.89%E -6.21%K -62.66%G +0.000% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.18%EV -0.059%E -0.010%K -0.011%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-16 21:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.45%EV -4.38%E -3.84%K -31.26%G +0.000% | 6.19I 16.16%NM 15.55%EV -0.220%E -0.036%K -0.042%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.25%EV -4.38%E -3.84%K -31.26%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.75%EV -1.67%E -0.274%K -0.328%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.37%EV -5.22%E -4.62%K -40.12%G +0.000% | 6.10I 16.39%NM 15.63%EV -1.67%E -0.274%K -0.328%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -3.54%E -3.08%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV -3.28%E -0.547%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-17 12:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.92%EV -3.54%E -3.08%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.08%EV -3.28%E -0.547%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-17 12:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.38%E -3.84%K -31.26%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -3.28%E -0.547%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-17 08:06 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -4.38%E -3.84%K -31.26%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -3.28%E -0.547%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-16 15:30 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.22%E -4.62%K -40.12%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.28%E -0.547%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-17 14:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -5.22%E -4.62%K -40.12%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -3.28%E -0.547%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-17 14:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.83%EV -4.38%E -3.84%K -31.26%G +0.000% | 5.91I 16.92%NM 16.17%EV -4.73%E -0.801%K -0.964%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-16 16:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.81%EV -4.38%E -3.84%K -31.26%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.19%EV -4.89%E -0.830%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-17 12:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.81%EV -4.38%E -3.84%K -31.26%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.19%EV -4.89%E -0.830%K -0.999%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.40%EV -1.86%E -1.59%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 5.88I 17.01%NM 16.60%EV -5.22%E -0.887%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-17 14:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33%EV -2.70%E -2.33%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV -6.51%E -1.12%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-17 14:15 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33%EV -2.70%E -2.33%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV -6.51%E -1.12%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-17 14:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33%EV -2.70%E -2.33%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV -6.51%E -1.12%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-17 14:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.33%EV -2.70%E -2.33%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.67%EV -6.51%E -1.12%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-05-17 14:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.38%E -3.84%K -31.26%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -6.51%E -1.12%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-17 14:15 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.69%EV -5.22%E -4.62%K -40.12%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.31%EV -6.51%E -1.12%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -6.05%E -5.41%K -50.45%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -6.51%E -1.12%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-17 14:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36%EV -3.54%E -3.08%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV -7.15%E -1.24%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-17 11:19 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.36%EV -3.54%E -3.08%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.76I 17.36%NM 16.64%EV -7.15%E -1.24%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-17 11:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.33%EV -3.54%E -3.08%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.67%EV -7.31%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-17 14:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.38%E -3.84%K -31.26%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -7.31%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 14:09 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.22%E -4.62%K -40.12%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -7.31%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.22%E -4.62%K -40.12%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -7.31%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.22%E -4.62%K -40.12%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -7.31%E -1.27%K -1.54%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 14:25 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.82%EV -7.73%E -7.03%K -77.31%G +0.000% | 5.70I 17.54%NM 16.18%EV -8.12%E -1.42%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 14:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -2.70%E -2.33%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -9.73%E -1.74%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -2.70%E -2.33%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -9.73%E -1.74%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -2.70%E -2.33%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -9.73%E -1.74%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -2.70%E -2.33%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -9.73%E -1.74%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -2.70%E -2.33%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -9.73%E -1.74%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -2.70%E -2.33%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -9.73%E -1.74%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -2.70%E -2.33%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -9.73%E -1.74%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -2.70%E -2.33%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -9.73%E -1.74%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.84%EV -2.70%E -2.33%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.16%EV -9.73%E -1.74%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -3.54%E -3.08%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.38%E -3.84%K -31.26%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 14:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.38%E -3.84%K -31.26%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 12:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.38%E -3.84%K -31.26%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 12:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.38%E -3.84%K -31.26%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 14:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.38%E -3.84%K -31.26%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-17 12:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.22%E -4.62%K -40.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 12:15 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.96%EV -5.22%E -4.62%K -40.12%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.04%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-17 12:14 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.05%E -5.41%K -50.45%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-16 16:50 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.05%E -5.41%K -50.45%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -11.34%E -2.06%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV -4.38%E -3.84%K -31.26%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -12.95%E -2.40%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -5.22%E -4.62%K -40.12%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -12.95%E -2.40%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV -5.22%E -4.62%K -40.12%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -12.95%E -2.40%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -6.05%E -5.41%K -50.45%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -12.95%E -2.40%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-17 12:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 82.82%EV -6.05%E -5.41%K -50.45%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.18%EV -12.95%E -2.40%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-05-17 12:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -3.54%E -3.08%K -23.58%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -15.37%E -2.93%K -3.62%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.57%EV -5.22%E -4.62%K -40.12%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -19.40%E -3.88%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-17 13:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.32% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 0.2% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.32% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 0.2% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 85.32% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 14.68% | 0.2% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.94% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 15.06% | 0.6% | 2026-05-17 12:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.90% | 6.58I 15.20%NM 15.10% | 0.7% | 2026-05-17 14:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.15I 86.96%NM 85.16% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 14.84% | 2.1% | 2026-05-17 14:30 |