Language:English
Denis Shapovalov v Mariano Navone
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Denis Shapovalov (Local)
Prediction 36.09%2.77fair odd
EV +1.04%
Edge +0.372%
Kelly +0.579%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 2.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%35.98%36.37%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.612.602.8041.67%38.31%38.46%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mariano Navone (Visit)
Prediction 63.91%1.56fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -4.17%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.54%64.02%63.63%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.491.501.5370.42%67.25%66.67%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Denis Shapovalov (Local): 36.09%; Mariano Navone (Visit): 63.91%. For Denis Shapovalov (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.04%.
Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV +1.04%E +0.372%K +0.579%G +0.006% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -5.41%E -3.65%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -0.762%E -0.277%K -0.435%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.33%E -5.05%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02%EV -2.57%E -0.950%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98%EV -2.85%E -1.88%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -2.57%E -0.950%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -6.69%E -4.58%K -14.54%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.57%E -0.950%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.05%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.57%E -0.950%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.05%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.57%E -0.950%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.05%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -2.57%E -0.950%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.33%E -5.05%K -16.28%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -4.37%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -2.21%E -1.45%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -4.37%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -7.96%E -5.53%K -18.10%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -4.37%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -9.24%E -6.51%K -22.01%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -4.37%E -1.65%K -2.65%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -9.24%E -6.51%K -22.01%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.69%EV -4.73%E -1.79%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.31%EV -2.21%E -1.45%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.69%EV -4.73%E -1.79%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.31%EV -2.21%E -1.45%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.64I 37.88%NM 36.23%EV -4.73%E -1.79%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.77%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.09%E -1.94%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.77%E -3.20%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -5.45%E -2.08%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.45%E -2.08%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.96%E -5.53%K -18.10%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.45%E -2.08%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.96%E -5.53%K -18.10%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.50%EV -5.81%E -2.23%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.50%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.34%EV -5.81%E -2.23%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.66%EV -4.77%E -3.20%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -2.21%E -1.45%K -4.17%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-07 17:46 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.96%E -5.53%K -18.10%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.17%E -2.37%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.96%E -5.53%K -18.10%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.70%EV -7.26%E -2.82%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.30%EV -4.77%E -3.20%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 17:58 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.57I 38.91%NM 36.54%EV -7.26%E -2.82%K -4.62%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.46%EV -5.41%E -3.65%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -7.98%E -3.13%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -4.77%E -3.20%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -7.98%E -3.13%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -4.77%E -3.20%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -7.98%E -3.13%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -4.77%E -3.20%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.98%E -3.13%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.41%E -3.65%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -7.98%E -3.13%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.41%E -3.65%K -11.27%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -2.85%E -1.88%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.78%E -3.91%K -6.52%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -13.39%E -5.58%K -9.57%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -4.13%E -2.75%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-05-07 17:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83% | 0.8% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83% | 0.8% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83% | 0.8% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.17% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.83% | 0.8% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Novig◎ | 2.73I 36.63%NM 35.92% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.08% | 2.0% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.20% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.80% | 2.2% | 2026-05-07 18:00 |