Language:English
Andrea Pellegrino v Luca Nardi
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Andrea Pellegrino (Local)
Prediction 58.20%1.72fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -4.18%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.58%58.21%58.24%60.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.631.641.6764.52%61.21%60.98%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Luca Nardi (Visit)
Prediction 41.80%2.39fair odd
EV +1.99%
Edge +0.815%
Kelly +1.38%
Growth +0.027%
assuming max odds 2.44
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.75%41.79%41.76%43.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.262.252.4446.51%44.33%44.44%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Andrea Pellegrino (Local): 58.20%; Luca Nardi (Visit): 41.80%. For Luca Nardi (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.39. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.99%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%EV -6.30%E -3.91%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%EV +1.99%E +0.815%K +1.38%G +0.027% | 3.1% | 2026-05-07 17:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%EV -6.30%E -3.91%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%EV +1.99%E +0.815%K +1.38%G +0.027% | 3.1% | 2026-05-07 17:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV -1.77%E -0.755%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-07 13:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -1.77%E -0.755%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-07 17:53 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%EV -2.61%E -1.12%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-07 15:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -3.03%E -1.31%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.03%E -1.31%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-06 13:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -3.45%E -1.49%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 17:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-06 13:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-06 13:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 15:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.79%E -6.31%K -17.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 13:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.70%E -2.06%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.70%E -2.06%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.70%E -2.06%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 16:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -5.54%E -2.45%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 13:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 01:11 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 12:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.88%E -4.30%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 15:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.88%E -4.30%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 13:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -6.37%E -2.84%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 17:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.79%E -3.04%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.79%E -3.04%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.79%E -3.04%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -7.21%E -3.25%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 17:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.11%EV -3.39%E -2.04%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.89%EV -7.63%E -3.45%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-07 17:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 15:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 15:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 15:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 15:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-07 17:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.88%E -4.30%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 01:11 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.88%E -4.30%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 12:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -8.88%E -4.07%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-06 13:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -10.13%E -4.71%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-06 13:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -10.13%E -4.71%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-06 13:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -10.13%E -4.71%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-06 13:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -10.13%E -4.71%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-06 13:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-05-07 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 0.8% | 2026-05-07 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 0.8% | 2026-05-07 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 17:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 17:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79% | 2.3% | 2026-05-07 17:55 |