Idioma:Español
Andrea Pellegrino v Luca Nardi
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Andrea Pellegrino (Local)
Predicción 58.20%1.72momio equitativo
EV -2.80%
Ventaja -1.68%
Kelly -4.18%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.67
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
56.58%58.21%58.24%60.25%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.551.631.641.6764.52%61.21%60.98%59.88%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Luca Nardi (Visitante)
Predicción 41.80%2.39momio equitativo
EV +1.99%
Ventaja +0.815%
Kelly +1.38%
Crecimiento +0.027%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.44
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
39.75%41.79%41.76%43.42%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.152.262.252.4446.51%44.33%44.44%40.98%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Andrea Pellegrino (Local): 58.20%; Luca Nardi (Visitante): 41.80%. Para Luca Nardi (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.39. 2 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 2.44, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.99%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (58 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%EV -6.30%E -3.91%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%EV +1.99%E +0.815%K +1.38%G +0.027% | 3.1% | 2026-05-07 17:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%EV -6.30%E -3.91%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%EV +1.99%E +0.815%K +1.38%G +0.027% | 3.1% | 2026-05-07 17:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV -1.77%E -0.755%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-05-07 13:30 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -1.77%E -0.755%K -1.31%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-07 17:53 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%EV -2.61%E -1.12%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-05-07 15:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -3.03%E -1.31%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.03%E -1.31%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-06 13:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -3.45%E -1.49%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 17:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-06 13:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-06 13:39 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 15:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.79%E -6.31%K -17.80%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 13:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.70%E -2.06%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.70%E -2.06%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.70%E -2.06%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 16:35 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -5.54%E -2.45%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 13:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 01:11 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 12:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-07 13:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.88%E -4.30%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 15:39 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.88%E -4.30%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-07 13:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -6.37%E -2.84%K -5.14%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 17:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.79%E -3.04%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.79%E -3.04%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.79%E -3.04%K -5.52%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-05-07 14:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -7.21%E -3.25%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-07 17:45 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.11%EV -3.39%E -2.04%K -5.13%G +0.000% | 2.21I 45.25%NM 42.89%EV -7.63%E -3.45%K -6.30%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-07 17:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 15:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 15:40 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 15:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 15:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-07 17:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.88%E -4.30%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 01:11 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.88%E -4.30%K -11.46%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-07 12:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -8.88%E -4.07%K -7.53%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-06 13:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -10.13%E -4.71%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-06 13:44 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -10.13%E -4.71%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-06 13:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -10.13%E -4.71%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-06 13:45 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -10.13%E -4.71%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-06 13:40 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (6)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 0.5% | 2026-05-07 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 0.8% | 2026-05-07 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32% | 0.8% | 2026-05-07 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 17:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51% | 2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49% | 1.2% | 2026-05-07 17:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79% | 2.3% | 2026-05-07 17:55 |