A Escola das Odds

Andrea Pellegrino v Luca Nardi

Início: 2026-05-07 18:10 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

58 casas de apostas (20 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Andrea Pellegrino (Local)

Previsão 58.20%1.72odd justa
EV -2.80%
Vantagem -1.68%
Kelly -4.18%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.67

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
56.58%58.21%58.24%60.25%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.551.631.641.6764.52%61.21%60.98%59.88%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Luca Nardi (Visitante)

Previsão 41.80%2.39odd justa
EV +1.99%
Vantagem +0.815%
Kelly +1.38%
Crescimento +0.027%

pressupondo odds máximas de 2.44

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
39.75%41.79%41.76%43.42%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
2.152.262.252.4446.51%44.33%44.44%40.98%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (58 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
LowVig.ag1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%EV -6.30%E -3.91%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%EV +1.99%E +0.815%K +1.38%G +0.027%3.1%2026-05-07 17:55
BetOnline.ag1.61I 62.11%NM 60.25%EV -6.30%E -3.91%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 39.75%EV +1.99%E +0.815%K +1.38%G +0.027%3.1%2026-05-07 17:55
Winamax (DE)1.64I 60.98%NM 58.90%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.10%EV -1.77%E -0.755%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-07 13:30
Betclic (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 59.05%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.95%EV -1.77%E -0.755%K -1.31%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-07 17:53
Pinnacle1.67I 59.88%NM 58.25%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.75%EV -2.61%E -1.12%K -1.96%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-07 15:40
GTbets1.64I 60.98%NM 58.59%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.41%EV -3.03%E -1.31%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-07 14:55
FanDuel1.62I 61.73%NM 58.88%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 41.12%EV -3.03%E -1.31%K -2.29%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-06 13:39
1xBet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -3.45%E -1.49%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-07 17:55
Fanatics1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-07 13:00
SportsBet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-06 13:45
Paddy Power1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-06 13:39
theScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 13:00
BoyleSports1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 13:00
BetUS1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 15:40
Tipico (DE)1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.79%E -6.31%K -17.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -3.86%E -1.68%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-07 13:50
Betsson1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.70%E -2.06%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 13:00
NordicBet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.70%E -2.06%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 13:00
ReBet1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -4.70%E -2.06%K -3.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 16:35
Codere (IT)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.25%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.75%EV -5.54%E -2.45%K -4.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-07 13:00
Betway1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 13:55
Hard Rock Bet1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 14:55
Unibet (NL)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
Unibet (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:50
Casumo1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
Unibet1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
BetRivers1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
TABtouch1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
LeoVegas1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
LeoVegas (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
Grosvenor1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
betPARX1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
Svenska Spel1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
Bally Bet1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
ATG (SE)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 14:55
PointsBet (AU)1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 01:11
PlayUp1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.13%E -3.15%K -8.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 12:55
Unibet (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 13:00
Winamax (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 13:00
TAB1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.88%E -4.30%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-07 15:39
NetBet (FR)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.88%E -4.30%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -5.95%E -2.65%K -4.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-07 13:05
Bet Right1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%EV -6.37%E -2.84%K -5.14%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-07 17:40
Virgin Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.79%E -3.04%K -5.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 14:55
LiveScore Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.79%E -3.04%K -5.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 14:55
PMU (FR)1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.71%E -3.53%K -9.21%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -6.79%E -3.04%K -5.52%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 14:55
DraftKings1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -7.21%E -3.25%K -5.91%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 17:45
Marathon Bet1.66I 60.24%NM 57.11%EV -3.39%E -2.04%K -5.13%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.89%EV -7.63%E -3.45%K -6.30%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 17:50
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 15:39
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 15:40
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 15:39
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.80%E -1.68%K -4.18%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-07 15:35
Betr (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-07 17:50
Bet Victor1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.88%E -4.30%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-07 01:11
Everygame1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -6.88%E -4.30%K -11.46%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -8.04%E -3.66%K -6.70%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-07 12:55
BetMGM1.65I 60.61%NM 56.92%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.08%EV -8.88%E -4.07%K -7.53%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-06 13:40
Ladbrokes (UK)1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -10.13%E -4.71%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 13:44
Coral1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -3.97%E -2.40%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -10.13%E -4.71%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-06 13:45
Ladbrokes (AU)1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -10.13%E -4.71%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-06 13:45
Neds1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -4.55%E -2.77%K -7.11%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -10.13%E -4.71%K -8.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-06 13:40
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (6)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46%0.5%2026-05-07 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%0.8%2026-05-07 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.68%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.32%0.8%2026-05-07 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.69I 59.17%NM 58.48%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.52%1.2%2026-05-07 17:55
Novig1.66I 60.24%NM 59.51%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.49%1.2%2026-05-07 17:55
Smarkets1.68I 59.52%NM 58.21%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.79%2.3%2026-05-07 17:55