Language:English
Alexei Popyrin v Jakub Mensik
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alexei Popyrin (Local)
Prediction 32.24%3.10fair odd
EV -0.697%
Edge -0.226%
Kelly -0.335%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.08
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.15%32.22%32.18%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.922.903.0835.71%34.27%34.48%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Jakub Mensik (Visit)
Prediction 67.76%1.48fair odd
EV -3.78%
Edge -2.66%
Kelly -9.01%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.67%67.78%67.82%68.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.401.4273.53%71.30%71.43%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexei Popyrin (Local): 32.24%; Jakub Mensik (Visit): 67.76%. For Alexei Popyrin (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.08, with an expected value of -0.697%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.08I 32.47%NM 31.56%EV -0.697%E -0.226%K -0.335%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.44%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-05-09 20:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -1.66%E -0.546%K -0.812%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -1.66%E -0.546%K -0.812%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -1.66%E -0.546%K -0.812%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.82%E -4.18%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -1.66%E -0.546%K -0.812%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.82%E -4.18%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-05-09 20:25 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.66%E -0.546%K -0.812%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.49%E -4.71%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.02I 33.11%NM 31.52%EV -2.63%E -0.871%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.48%EV -5.82%E -4.18%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.28%E -1.09%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-09 20:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.28%E -1.09%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-09 20:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -3.28%E -1.09%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.46%E -3.16%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-09 20:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.28%E -1.09%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -3.28%E -1.09%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -6.49%E -4.71%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.28%E -1.09%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.85%E -5.77%K -21.80%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -3.92%E -1.32%K -1.98%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.97I 33.67%NM 31.57%EV -4.24%E -1.43%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 68.43%EV -7.17%E -5.23%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.89%E -1.66%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.89%E -1.66%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.89%E -1.66%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.89%E -1.66%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.89%E -1.66%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -4.89%E -1.66%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -4.89%E -1.66%K -2.51%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.82%E -4.18%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%EV -5.21%E -1.77%K -2.69%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.56%EV -5.86%E -2.01%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.44%EV -4.46%E -3.16%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-09 20:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.29%EV -4.46%E -3.16%K -10.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.40%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.60%EV -5.82%E -4.18%K -14.91%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.49%E -4.71%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.49%E -4.71%K -17.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -6.50%E -2.24%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.85%E -5.77%K -21.80%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.15%E -2.48%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.15%E -2.48%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.15%E -2.48%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.15%E -2.48%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.15%E -2.48%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.15%E -2.48%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.15%E -2.48%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.15%E -2.48%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.15%E -2.48%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.15%E -2.48%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.15%E -2.48%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.15%E -2.48%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.02%EV -7.15%E -2.48%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.98%EV -3.78%E -2.66%K -9.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.47%E -2.60%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -8.11%E -2.85%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.46%EV -8.11%E -2.85%K -4.39%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.54%EV -7.17%E -5.23%K -19.38%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.72%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 20:12 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.72%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.72%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.72%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 20:15 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.72%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.72%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.72%E -3.47%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.14%E -3.67%K -12.84%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-09 20:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-05-09 20:34 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.08% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.92% | 0.7% | 2026-05-09 20:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 1.2% | 2026-05-09 20:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.06% | 1.2% | 2026-05-09 20:34 |
| Novig◎ | 3.21I 31.15%NM 30.52% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.48% | 2.1% | 2026-05-09 20:34 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.59% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.41% | 2.2% | 2026-05-09 20:29 |