Language:English
Matteo Arnaldi v Mackenzie McDonald
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Matteo Arnaldi (Local)
Prediction 40.42%2.47fair odd
EV +1.86%
Edge +0.738%
Kelly +1.22%
Growth +0.023%
assuming max odds 2.52
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.72%40.33%40.72%42.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.162.342.322.5246.30%42.81%43.10%39.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Mackenzie McDonald (Visit)
Prediction 59.58%1.68fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -2.60%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.14%59.67%59.28%62.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.601.611.6565.79%62.69%62.11%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Matteo Arnaldi (Local): 40.42%; Mackenzie McDonald (Visit): 59.58%. For Matteo Arnaldi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.47. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.52, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.86%.
Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54%EV +1.86%E +0.738%K +1.22%G +0.023% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46%EV -5.86%E -3.71%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54%EV +1.86%E +0.738%K +1.22%G +0.023% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46%EV -5.86%E -3.71%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.72%EV +1.45%E +0.579%K +0.963%G +0.014% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.28%EV -9.44%E -6.21%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV +1.05%E +0.420%K +0.700%G +0.007% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -7.06%E -4.52%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -0.162%E -0.066%K -0.110%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -7.65%E -4.94%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -0.971%E -0.396%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.65%E -4.94%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -0.971%E -0.396%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.65%E -4.94%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -0.971%E -0.396%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -8.25%E -5.36%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -0.971%E -0.396%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -8.25%E -5.36%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -0.971%E -0.396%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -8.84%E -5.78%K -16.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -2.99%E -1.25%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -2.88%E -1.77%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -2.99%E -1.25%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -2.88%E -1.77%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.99%E -1.25%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.86%E -3.71%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.80%E -1.60%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.46%E -4.11%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -4.20%E -1.77%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -4.61%E -1.95%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -4.67%E -2.92%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.01%E -2.13%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-06 03:18 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.01%E -2.13%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 03:19 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -5.42%E -2.31%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -4.67%E -2.92%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -5.82%E -2.50%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -7.06%E -4.52%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 03:17 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.07%EV -6.63%E -2.87%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.93%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 03:19 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 03:19 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 03:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 03:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.67%E -2.92%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-06 03:17 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.27%E -3.31%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -5.86%E -3.71%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -5.86%E -3.71%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.84%E -3.44%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -2.88%E -1.77%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:17 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.69%E -1.03%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 03:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.67%E -2.92%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -5.27%E -3.31%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -5.86%E -3.71%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -5.86%E -3.71%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.46%E -4.11%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.46%E -4.11%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -11.08%E -5.03%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -4.67%E -2.92%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.86%EV -12.69%E -5.88%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.14%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71% | 0.9% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71% | 0.9% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05% | 0.9% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Novig◎ | 2.49I 40.16%NM 39.42% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.58% | 1.9% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |