La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Matteo Arnaldi v Mackenzie McDonald
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Matteo Arnaldi (Local)
Predicción 40.42%2.47momio equitativo
EV +1.86%
Ventaja +0.738%
Kelly +1.22%
Crecimiento +0.023%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.52
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.72%40.33%40.72%42.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.162.342.322.5246.30%42.81%43.10%39.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Mackenzie McDonald (Visitante)
Predicción 59.58%1.68momio equitativo
EV -1.69%
Ventaja -1.03%
Kelly -2.60%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.14%59.67%59.28%62.28%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.521.601.611.6565.79%62.69%62.11%60.61%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54%EV +1.86%E +0.738%K +1.22%G +0.023% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46%EV -5.86%E -3.71%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| LowVig.ag | 2.52I 39.68%NM 38.54%EV +1.86%E +0.738%K +1.22%G +0.023% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.46%EV -5.86%E -3.71%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| DraftKings | 2.51I 39.84%NM 37.72%EV +1.45%E +0.579%K +0.963%G +0.014% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.28%EV -9.44%E -6.21%K -18.15%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV +1.05%E +0.420%K +0.700%G +0.007% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -7.06%E -4.52%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.47I 40.49%NM 38.56%EV -0.162%E -0.066%K -0.110%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.44%EV -7.65%E -4.94%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Betsson | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -0.971%E -0.396%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.65%E -4.94%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| NordicBet | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -0.971%E -0.396%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -7.65%E -4.94%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -0.971%E -0.396%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -8.25%E -5.36%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| theScore Bet | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.60%EV -0.971%E -0.396%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.40%EV -8.25%E -5.36%K -15.27%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -0.971%E -0.396%K -0.669%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -8.84%E -5.78%K -16.68%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Coolbet | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -2.99%E -1.25%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -2.88%E -1.77%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.45%EV -2.99%E -1.25%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 59.55%EV -2.88%E -1.77%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| 1xBet | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.99%E -1.25%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.86%E -3.71%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Paddy Power | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -3.80%E -1.60%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.46%E -4.11%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.37I 42.19%NM 40.60%EV -4.20%E -1.77%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.40%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| GTbets | 2.36I 42.37%NM 40.40%EV -4.61%E -1.95%K -3.39%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.60%EV -4.67%E -2.92%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Fanatics | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.01%E -2.13%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-06 03:18 |
| Bovada | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.01%E -2.13%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-06 03:19 |
| Bet Right | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -5.42%E -2.31%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -4.67%E -2.92%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.10%EV -5.82%E -2.50%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.90%EV -7.06%E -4.52%K -12.60%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-06 03:17 |
| TABtouch | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| LeoVegas | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Unibet | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Grosvenor | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Casumo | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Bally Bet | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Svenska Spel | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| betPARX | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%EV -6.23%E -2.68%K -4.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.07%EV -6.63%E -2.87%K -5.06%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.93%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 03:19 |
| BetRivers | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:15 |
| BoyleSports | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| William Hill | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:19 |
| 888sport | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 03:19 |
| BetMGM | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 03:19 |
| 888sport (SE) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 03:19 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.08%E -2.53%K -6.68%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Everygame | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.67%E -2.92%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-06 03:17 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.27%E -3.31%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| TAB | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -5.86%E -3.71%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| NetBet (FR) | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -7.03%E -3.06%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -5.86%E -3.71%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| SportsBet | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -7.84%E -3.44%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -2.88%E -1.77%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 03:17 |
| Betway | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -1.69%E -1.03%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Caesars | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 03:19 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -4.67%E -2.92%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Fliff | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -5.27%E -3.31%K -8.93%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -5.86%E -3.71%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Neds | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 58.75%EV -5.86%E -3.71%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.46%E -4.11%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Coral | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.05%E -4.02%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.46%E -4.11%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Tipico (DE) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -11.08%E -5.03%K -9.23%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -4.67%E -2.92%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.16I 46.30%NM 42.86%EV -12.69%E -5.88%K -10.94%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.14%EV -3.48%E -2.15%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90% | 0.6% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71% | 0.9% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71% | 0.9% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05% | 0.9% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |
| Novig | 2.49I 40.16%NM 39.42% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.58% | 1.9% | 2026-03-06 03:20 |