Language:English
Fabian Marozsan v Roberto Bautista Agut
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Fabian Marozsan (Local)
Prediction 75.06%1.33fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -1.86%
Kelly -8.08%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.49%74.86%75.10%76.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.271.3081.97%78.77%78.74%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Roberto Bautista Agut (Visit)
Prediction 24.94%4.01fair odd
EV +2.26%
Edge +0.551%
Kelly +0.729%
Growth +0.016%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.36%25.14%24.90%27.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.773.804.1029.41%26.54%26.32%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fabian Marozsan (Local): 75.06%; Roberto Bautista Agut (Visit): 24.94%. For Roberto Bautista Agut (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.01. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.26%.
Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +2.26%E +0.551%K +0.729%G +0.016% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 22:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.13%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.87%EV +1.01%E +0.250%K +0.332%G +0.003% | 3.4% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV -0.234%E -0.059%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV -0.234%E -0.059%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-05 21:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -0.234%E -0.059%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-05 22:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.234%E -0.059%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 22:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.234%E -0.059%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 22:30 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.53%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.47%EV -1.48%E -0.375%K -0.502%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.53%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -2.23%E -0.569%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 22:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.53%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -2.23%E -0.569%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 22:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.82%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.18%EV -2.23%E -0.569%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -2.73%E -0.700%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 21:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -2.73%E -0.700%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 20:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.73%E -0.700%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 22:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -2.73%E -0.700%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-05 22:03 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.39%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.61%EV -3.73%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -3.98%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -3.98%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.98%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-05 22:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -8.43%E -6.91%K -38.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-05 18:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.17%E -2.46%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -6.47%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-05 18:45 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.47%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 18:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.47%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.47%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 21:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.47%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-05 19:55 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.96%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.17%E -2.46%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 16:30 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.17%E -2.46%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 16:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.17%E -2.46%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 16:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.17%E -2.46%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 16:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.17%E -2.46%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 18:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-05 16:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-05 18:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-05 21:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-05 21:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-04 15:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.42%E -1.86%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 21:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-05 18:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-05 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -13.95%E -4.04%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-05 18:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -13.95%E -4.04%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-05 18:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -3.17%E -2.46%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -15.20%E -4.47%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-04 16:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-03-05 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-03-05 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-03-05 21:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-03-05 21:50 |
| Novig◎ | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.3% | 2026-03-05 22:30 |