La escuela de los momiosIdioma:Español
Fabian Marozsan v Roberto Bautista Agut
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Fabian Marozsan (Local)
Predicción 75.06%1.33momio equitativo
EV -2.42%
Ventaja -1.86%
Kelly -8.08%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.30
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
72.49%74.86%75.10%76.64%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.221.271.271.3081.97%78.77%78.74%76.92%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Roberto Bautista Agut (Visitante)
Predicción 24.94%4.01momio equitativo
EV +2.26%
Ventaja +0.551%
Kelly +0.729%
Crecimiento +0.016%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.36%25.14%24.90%27.51%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.403.773.804.1029.41%26.54%26.32%24.39%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Momios de las casas de apuestas (61 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV +2.26%E +0.551%K +0.729%G +0.016% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 22:30 |
| 1xBet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.13%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.87%EV +1.01%E +0.250%K +0.332%G +0.003% | 3.4% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| Coolbet | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV -0.234%E -0.059%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.76%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.24%EV -0.234%E -0.059%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-03-05 21:55 |
| FanDuel | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV -0.234%E -0.059%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-03-05 22:30 |
| Betway | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.234%E -0.059%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 22:09 |
| Paddy Power | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -0.234%E -0.059%K -0.078%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 22:30 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.53%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.47%EV -1.48%E -0.375%K -0.502%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.53%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -2.23%E -0.569%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 22:30 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.53%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.47%EV -2.23%E -0.569%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 22:30 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.82%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 24.18%EV -2.23%E -0.569%K -0.764%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| Bovada | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -2.73%E -0.700%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 21:49 |
| DraftKings | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -2.73%E -0.700%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-05 20:25 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -2.73%E -0.700%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-05 22:09 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.73%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.27%EV -2.73%E -0.700%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-05 22:03 |
| GTbets | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.39%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.86I 25.91%NM 24.61%EV -3.73%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| NordicBet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -3.98%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| Betsson | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -3.98%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| Bet Right | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -3.98%E -1.03%K -1.39%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Fanatics | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Casumo | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Grosvenor | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| betPARX | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Bally Bet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| TABtouch | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Unibet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| NetBet (FR) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-05 22:30 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -8.43%E -6.91%K -38.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -5.22%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-05 18:50 |
| BoyleSports | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.17%E -2.46%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -6.47%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-05 18:45 |
| BetUS | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.47%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 18:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -6.47%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.47%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 21:50 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.47%E -1.73%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 22:05 |
| theScore Bet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-05 19:55 |
| Fliff | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -7.72%E -2.09%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.34%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.66%EV -8.96%E -2.46%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-05 22:40 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.17%E -2.46%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 16:30 |
| 888sport | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.17%E -2.46%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 16:30 |
| William Hill | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.17%E -2.46%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 16:49 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.17%E -2.46%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 16:30 |
| BetMGM | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.17%E -2.46%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 18:40 |
| PlayUp | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-05 16:15 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -4.68%E -3.68%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-05 18:45 |
| TAB | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.43%E -4.31%K -20.87%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-05 21:55 |
| Bet Victor | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.18%E -4.94%K -24.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -10.21%E -2.84%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-05 21:39 |
| Everygame | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -11.46%E -3.23%K -4.49%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-04 15:40 |
| BetRivers | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -2.42%E -1.86%K -8.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-05 21:39 |
| Coral | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-05 18:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -12.71%E -3.63%K -5.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-05 18:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -13.95%E -4.04%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-05 18:40 |
| Neds | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -3.92%E -3.07%K -14.02%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -13.95%E -4.04%K -5.69%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-05 18:40 |
| Caesars | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -3.17%E -2.46%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -15.20%E -4.47%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-04 16:59 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (5)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-03-05 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-03-05 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-03-05 21:55 |
| Matchbook | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-03-05 21:50 |
| Novig | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.3% | 2026-03-05 22:30 |