Language:English
Daniil Medvedev v Alex Michelsen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Daniil Medvedev (Local)
Prediction 77.39%1.29fair odd
EV +1.39%
Edge +1.06%
Kelly +4.47%
Growth +0.062%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.29%76.80%77.36%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.231.221.3185.47%81.18%81.97%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Alex Michelsen (Visit)
Prediction 22.61%4.42fair odd
EV +1.73%
Edge +0.384%
Kelly +0.493%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.63%23.20%22.64%29.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.104.044.104.5032.26%24.73%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Daniil Medvedev (Local): 77.39%; Alex Michelsen (Visit): 22.61%. For Alex Michelsen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.42. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.73%.
Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV +1.39%E +1.06%K +4.47%G +0.062% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -15.23%E -4.06%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-11 19:45 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV +1.39%E +1.06%K +4.47%G +0.062% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -18.62%E -5.17%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-11 20:13 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.29%EV +1.39%E +1.06%K +4.47%G +0.062% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -29.92%E -9.65%K -14.25%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-11 20:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV +0.612%E +0.471%K +2.04%G +0.012% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -18.62%E -5.17%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-11 19:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -0.162%E -0.125%K -0.558%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -18.62%E -5.17%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-10 16:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -0.936%E -0.731%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -20.88%E -5.97%K -8.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -0.936%E -0.731%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -22.01%E -6.38%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-11 19:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.94%EV -0.936%E -0.731%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.06%EV -22.01%E -6.38%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-11 19:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -1.71%E -1.35%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV -13.65%E -3.57%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 20:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -1.71%E -1.35%K -6.33%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -25.40%E -7.70%K -11.04%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-11 20:13 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.71%EV -2.48%E -1.97%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.29%EV -6.19%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-03-11 20:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -2.48%E -1.97%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV -8.90%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-11 20:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.18%EV -2.48%E -1.97%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.82%EV -8.90%E -2.21%K -2.94%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-11 20:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.44%EV -2.48%E -1.97%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 3.87I 25.84%NM 24.56%EV -12.51%E -3.23%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 20:03 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -2.48%E -1.97%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -12.97%E -3.37%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-11 20:03 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -2.48%E -1.97%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -15.23%E -4.06%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 19:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -2.48%E -1.97%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -15.23%E -4.06%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 20:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.26%E -2.61%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -9.58%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-11 20:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -3.26%E -2.61%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -12.97%E -3.37%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-11 20:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -3.26%E -2.61%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -15.23%E -4.06%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-11 20:03 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -3.26%E -2.61%K -13.03%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -18.62%E -5.17%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-11 19:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.87%EV -4.03%E -3.25%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.13%EV -6.86%E -1.67%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 20:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -4.03%E -3.25%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -9.58%E -2.39%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.49%EV -4.03%E -3.25%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.51%EV -13.65%E -3.57%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-11 20:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -4.03%E -3.25%K -16.80%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -14.10%E -3.71%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.58%E -4.57%K -25.36%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -2.79%E -0.650%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.58%E -4.57%K -25.36%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -2.79%E -0.650%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.58%E -4.57%K -25.36%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -2.79%E -0.650%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.58%E -4.57%K -25.36%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -2.79%E -0.650%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.58%E -4.57%K -25.36%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -2.79%E -0.650%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.58%E -4.57%K -25.36%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -2.79%E -0.650%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -5.58%E -4.57%K -25.36%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -2.79%E -0.650%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.58%E -4.57%K -25.36%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -3.92%E -0.923%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.58%E -4.57%K -25.36%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.05%E -1.20%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.20%EV -5.58%E -4.57%K -25.36%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -16.36%E -4.42%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -6.35%E -5.25%K -30.25%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +1.73%E +0.384%K +0.493%G +0.009% | 4.9% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -6.35%E -5.25%K -30.25%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -3.92%E -0.923%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -6.35%E -5.25%K -30.25%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -5.05%E -1.20%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.35%E -5.25%K -30.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.32%E -1.78%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.35%E -5.25%K -30.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.32%E -1.78%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.35%E -5.25%K -30.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.32%E -1.78%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.35%E -5.25%K -30.25%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.32%E -1.78%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.13%E -5.94%K -35.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +1.73%E +0.384%K +0.493%G +0.009% | 5.6% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -7.13%E -5.94%K -35.64%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +1.73%E +0.384%K +0.493%G +0.009% | 5.6% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -7.13%E -5.94%K -35.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -0.534%E -0.121%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -7.13%E -5.94%K -35.64%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -0.534%E -0.121%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -7.13%E -5.94%K -35.64%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -2.12%E -0.489%K -0.635%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -7.13%E -5.94%K -35.64%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -2.12%E -0.489%K -0.635%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -7.13%E -5.94%K -35.64%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -2.12%E -0.489%K -0.635%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -7.13%E -5.94%K -35.64%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -2.79%E -0.650%K -0.847%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -7.13%E -5.94%K -35.64%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.05%E -1.20%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -7.13%E -5.94%K -35.64%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.32%E -1.78%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -7.13%E -5.94%K -35.64%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -7.32%E -1.78%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.50%EV -7.90%E -6.64%K -41.58%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.50%EV -7.32%E -1.78%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -8.68%E -7.35%K -48.19%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +1.73%E +0.384%K +0.493%G +0.009% | 7.0% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -8.68%E -7.35%K -48.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -0.534%E -0.121%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -8.68%E -7.35%K -48.19%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -0.534%E -0.121%K -0.157%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -9.45%E -8.08%K -55.58%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +1.73%E +0.384%K +0.493%G +0.009% | 7.7% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 80.13% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.87% | 0.6% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.57% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.43% | 0.8% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Novig◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 79.09% | 4.69I 21.32%NM 20.91% | 2.0% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 73.96% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.04% | 2.4% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.22I 81.97%NM 78.67% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.33% | 4.2% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66% | 5.6% | 2026-03-11 20:15 |