Language:English
Alejandro Tabilo v Rafael Jodar
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alejandro Tabilo (Local)
Prediction 42.33%2.36fair odd
EV +1.60%
Edge +0.665%
Kelly +1.14%
Growth +0.018%
assuming max odds 2.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.85%42.73%42.11%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.202.202.4052.36%45.41%45.45%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Rafael Jodar (Visit)
Prediction 57.67%1.73fair odd
EV +3.80%
Edge +2.11%
Kelly +4.75%
Growth +0.181%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%57.27%57.89%60.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.651.651.8064.10%60.77%60.61%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alejandro Tabilo (Local): 42.33%; Rafael Jodar (Visit): 57.67%. For Rafael Jodar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.73. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.80%.
Sportsbook Odds (62 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -19.15%E -10.02%K -21.04%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV +3.80%E +2.11%K +4.75%G +0.181% | 7.9% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -15.34%E -7.67%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -0.234%E -0.135%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -15.34%E -7.67%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -0.234%E -0.135%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -15.34%E -7.67%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -0.234%E -0.135%K -0.320%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -1.39%E -0.811%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -1.39%E -0.811%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 00:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -1.96%E -1.16%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 00:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.39%EV -9.83%E -4.62%K -8.70%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.61%EV -1.96%E -1.16%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -2.54%E -1.50%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -2.54%E -1.50%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -7.72%E -3.54%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -3.12%E -1.86%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 01:01 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -7.72%E -3.54%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -3.12%E -1.86%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -7.72%E -3.54%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -3.12%E -1.86%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -7.72%E -3.54%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -3.12%E -1.86%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -7.72%E -3.54%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -3.12%E -1.86%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 01:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -7.72%E -3.54%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -3.12%E -1.86%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -7.72%E -3.54%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -3.12%E -1.86%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.87%E -3.12%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.69%E -2.21%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 22:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.87%E -3.12%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -3.69%E -2.21%K -5.51%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.46%EV -8.56%E -3.96%K -7.38%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.54%EV -4.27%E -2.57%K -6.47%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 41.15%EV -0.097%E -0.041%K -0.072%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.85%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -0.521%E -0.222%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-06 00:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -0.521%E -0.222%K -0.386%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-06 00:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-06 00:59 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -13.22%E -6.45%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -4.85%E -2.94%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.42%E -3.31%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 23:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.42%E -3.31%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 23:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.62%EV -10.26%E -4.84%K -9.16%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.38%EV -5.42%E -3.31%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.44%EV -13.22%E -6.45%K -12.59%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.56%EV -5.42%E -3.31%K -8.47%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-03-06 00:59 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -3.06%E -1.34%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -6.00%E -3.68%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -3.06%E -1.34%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -6.00%E -3.68%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 00:25 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.70%EV -11.10%E -5.29%K -10.09%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 56.30%EV -6.00%E -3.68%K -9.52%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -2.21%E -0.958%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -6.58%E -4.06%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-06 00:52 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -2.64%E -1.15%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.58%E -4.06%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-06 00:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.87%E -3.12%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.58%E -4.06%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-06 00:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.87%E -3.12%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.58%E -4.06%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.87%E -3.12%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.58%E -4.06%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.87%E -3.12%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.58%E -4.06%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 22:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -6.58%E -4.06%K -10.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -0.944%E -0.403%K -0.705%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -7.15%E -4.44%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-06 00:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -7.15%E -4.44%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-06 00:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -1.37%E -0.587%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -7.73%E -4.83%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-06 00:49 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -2.64%E -1.15%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.73%E -4.83%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 21:54 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -2.64%E -1.15%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.73%E -4.83%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-05 21:54 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -2.64%E -1.15%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.73%E -4.83%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-06 00:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.13%EV -3.06%E -1.34%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.87%EV -7.73%E -4.83%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.73%E -4.83%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.73%E -4.83%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.73%E -4.83%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.87%E -3.12%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.73%E -4.83%K -12.88%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV +1.60%E +0.665%K +1.14%G +0.018% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -8.31%E -5.22%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-06 00:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -2.64%E -1.15%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -8.31%E -5.22%K -14.08%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.00%EV -0.944%E -0.403%K -0.705%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.00%EV -10.04%E -6.43%K -17.92%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-06 00:57 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.94%EV -4.75%E -2.11%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 59.06%EV -10.04%E -6.43%K -17.92%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-06 00:57 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -8.99%E -4.18%K -7.81%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 57.95%EV -10.04%E -6.43%K -17.92%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65% | 0.3% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-03-06 01:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42% | 2.0% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00% | 2.0% | 2026-03-06 01:01 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.72% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.28% | 2.1% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |
| Novig◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81% | 6.7% | 2026-03-06 01:00 |