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Ugo Humbert v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Head to Head
Ugo Humbert (Local)
Prediction 73.63%1.36fair odd
EV -4.29%
Edge -3.30%
Kelly -14.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.07%73.55%73.62%75.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.281.291.3080.65%78.11%77.52%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit)
Prediction 26.37%3.79fair odd
EV +0.750%
Edge +0.196%
Kelly +0.266%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 3.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.95%26.45%26.38%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.573.603.8231.25%27.98%27.78%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ugo Humbert (Local): 73.63%; Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit): 26.37%. For Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.82, producing a positive expected value of +0.750%.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -6.50%E -5.11%K -24.06%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV +0.750%E +0.196%K +0.266%G +0.002% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 01:05 |
| Coolbet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.51%EV -4.29%E -3.30%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%EV +0.223%E +0.059%K +0.080%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| FanDuel | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.02%E -3.89%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -1.10%E -0.292%K -0.399%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-05 01:05 |
| Bovada | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.02%E -3.89%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -1.10%E -0.292%K -0.399%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-05 01:09 |
| Paddy Power | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.97%E -6.37%K -31.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -1.10%E -0.292%K -0.399%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 01:04 |
| Sky Bet | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -7.97%E -6.37%K -31.87%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -1.10%E -0.292%K -0.399%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 01:05 |
| 1xBet | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.95%EV -4.29%E -3.30%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 26.05%EV -2.68%E -0.726%K -0.996%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-05 01:15 |
| DraftKings | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.04%EV -5.02%E -3.89%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.96%EV -2.94%E -0.799%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 01:05 |
| NordicBet | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.02%E -3.89%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -3.73%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 01:09 |
| Betsson | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.02%E -3.89%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -3.73%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.76%E -4.50%K -20.57%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -3.73%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 01:09 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.76%E -4.50%K -20.57%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -3.73%E -1.02%K -1.41%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| GTbets | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.83%EV -5.02%E -3.89%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.17%EV -4.00%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| Fanatics | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.02%E -3.89%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| 888sport | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.02%E -3.89%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 00:59 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.02%E -3.89%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.02%E -3.89%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 01:00 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.02%E -3.89%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 00:59 |
| William Hill | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.02%E -3.89%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 01:29 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.76%E -4.50%K -20.57%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -5.05%E -1.40%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| Dabble (AU) | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -4.29%E -3.30%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 01:20 |
| betfred_uk | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.02%E -3.89%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 01:05 |
| theScore Bet | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.76%E -4.50%K -20.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 01:05 |
| TAB | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.76%E -4.50%K -20.57%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -6.50%E -5.11%K -24.06%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -7.69%E -2.20%K -3.08%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| PlayUp | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -4.29%E -3.30%K -14.29%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -9.01%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 01:20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%EV -7.23%E -5.74%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -9.01%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| ReBet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%EV -7.23%E -5.74%K -27.81%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -9.01%E -2.61%K -3.68%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| Bet Victor | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.02%E -3.89%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 01:14 |
| betano_uk | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.02%E -3.89%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -10.33%E -3.04%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 01:13 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.83%EV -7.97%E -6.37%K -31.87%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -11.65%E -3.48%K -4.96%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-05 01:15 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.53%EV -7.97%E -6.37%K -31.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -12.96%E -3.93%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.24I 80.65%NM 72.07%EV -8.70%E -7.02%K -36.27%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.93%EV -15.60%E -4.88%K -7.09%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.92% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 26.08% | 1.7% | 2026-08-05 01:05 |
| Matchbook | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89% | 8.2% | 2026-08-05 01:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.59% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41% | 10.0% | 2026-08-05 01:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.59% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41% | 10.0% | 2026-08-05 01:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 71.59% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41% | 10.0% | 2026-08-05 01:30 |
| Smarkets | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.53% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47% | 10.3% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |