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Ugo Humbert v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Resultado del partido
Ugo Humbert (Local)
Predicción 73.58%1.36momio equitativo
EV -5.09%
Ventaja -3.94%
Kelly -17.54%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.29
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
72.49%73.62%73.62%75.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.251.281.291.2980.00%78.21%77.82%77.52%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante)
Predicción 26.42%3.78momio equitativo
EV +3.05%
Ventaja +0.783%
Kelly +1.05%
Crecimiento +0.032%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.86%26.38%26.38%27.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.303.603.603.9030.30%27.81%27.78%25.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Ugo Humbert (Local): 73.58%; Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante): 26.42%. Para Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 3.78. 3 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 3.90, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +3.05%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (34 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV +3.05%E +0.783%K +1.05%G +0.032% | 3.2% | 2026-08-05 02:44 |
| SportsBet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -6.56%E -5.16%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV +0.940%E +0.246%K +0.333%G +0.003% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 01:05 |
| 1xBet | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.61%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.79I 26.39%NM 25.39%EV +0.147%E +0.039%K +0.053%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-05 02:45 |
| FanDuel | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -0.910%E -0.243%K -0.331%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-05 01:05 |
| Bovada | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -0.910%E -0.243%K -0.331%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-05 01:09 |
| Paddy Power | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.03%E -6.42%K -32.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -0.910%E -0.243%K -0.331%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 01:04 |
| Sky Bet | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.03%E -6.42%K -32.12%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -0.910%E -0.243%K -0.331%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 01:05 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.65%EV -6.56%E -5.16%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.35%EV -1.17%E -0.314%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 02:35 |
| DraftKings | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.04%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.68I 27.17%NM 25.96%EV -2.76%E -0.750%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 01:05 |
| NordicBet | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -3.55%E -0.973%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 01:09 |
| Betsson | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -3.55%E -0.973%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.04%EV -5.82%E -4.55%K -20.80%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.96%EV -3.55%E -0.973%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -6.56%E -5.16%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -3.55%E -0.973%K -1.34%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 02:29 |
| GTbets | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.83%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.17%EV -3.82%E -1.05%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| Fanatics | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| 888sport | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 00:59 |
| PointsBet (AU) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 01:00 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 00:59 |
| William Hill | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 01:29 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.82%E -4.55%K -20.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 02:05 |
| Dabble (AU) | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.82%E -4.55%K -20.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 02:40 |
| PlayUp | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.82%E -4.55%K -20.80%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 02:40 |
| betfred_uk | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -7.52%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 01:05 |
| theScore Bet | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.82%E -4.55%K -20.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.52%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 01:05 |
| TAB | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -5.82%E -4.55%K -20.80%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -7.52%E -2.15%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 02:40 |
| LeoVegas | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%EV -7.29%E -5.79%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.84%E -2.56%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%EV -7.29%E -5.79%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.84%E -2.56%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-05 02:04 |
| ReBet | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.25%EV -7.29%E -5.79%K -28.05%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -8.84%E -2.56%K -3.61%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| Bet Victor | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -10.16%E -2.99%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 01:14 |
| betano_uk | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.09%E -3.94%K -17.54%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -10.16%E -2.99%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 01:13 |
| Tipico (DE) | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.81%EV -6.56%E -5.16%K -24.29%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -10.16%E -2.99%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-05 02:00 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.83%EV -8.03%E -6.42%K -32.12%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.17%EV -11.48%E -3.43%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-05 01:15 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.53%EV -8.03%E -6.42%K -32.12%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -12.80%E -3.88%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig | 1.33I 75.19%NM 72.52% | 3.51I 28.49%NM 27.48% | 3.7% | 2026-08-05 02:05 |
| ProphetX | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73% | 7.1% | 2026-08-05 02:40 |
| Matchbook | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57% | 7.7% | 2026-08-05 02:05 |
| Smarkets | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.53% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47% | 10.3% | 2026-08-05 01:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 56.85% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 43.15% | 39.6% | 2026-08-05 02:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.26I 79.37%NM 56.85% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 43.15% | 39.6% | 2026-08-05 02:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.20I 83.33%NM 58.04% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 41.96% | 43.6% | 2026-08-05 02:35 |