Idioma:Español
Ugo Humbert v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Ugo Humbert (Local)
Predicción 67.84%1.47momio equitativo
EV -2.31%
Ventaja -1.60%
Kelly -5.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.44
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.53%67.87%67.81%69.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.351.401.401.4474.07%71.63%71.43%69.44%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante)
Predicción 32.16%3.11momio equitativo
EV -0.313%
Ventaja -0.101%
Kelly -0.149%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.80%32.13%32.19%34.47%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.702.962.983.1037.04%33.77%33.56%32.26%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Ugo Humbert (Local): 67.84%; Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante): 32.16%. Para Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.11. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.10, con un valor esperado de -0.313%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (65 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -2.31%E -1.60%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -9.96%E -3.56%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 21:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.08%EV -2.98%E -2.09%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.92%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-05 19:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.98%E -2.09%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 22:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-05 10:24 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 09:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -4.17%E -1.40%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-05 20:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-05 22:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-05 08:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.96%E -3.56%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 21:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -11.57%E -4.21%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-05 08:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -11.57%E -4.21%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-05 08:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -13.18%E -4.88%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-05 21:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -4.34%E -3.08%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV -2.24%E -0.738%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -4.34%E -3.08%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV -2.24%E -0.738%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 10:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.81%EV -4.34%E -3.08%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.19%EV -4.49%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 22:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -4.34%E -3.08%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -5.78%E -1.97%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 07:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 13:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 21:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 22:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 10:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%EV -5.46%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 20:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 10:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 08:53 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.39%E -2.57%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 08:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.39%E -2.57%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.39%E -2.57%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 20:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.71%E -2.69%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-05 08:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.71%E -2.69%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-05 08:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.96%E -3.56%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-05 20:11 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.96%E -3.56%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-05 20:12 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.70%E -4.10%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.70%E -4.10%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 16:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -0.313%E -0.101%K -0.149%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -1.28%E -0.416%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 10:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.91%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.09%EV -6.10%E -2.09%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 16:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 11:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.09%EV -7.73%E -5.69%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.91%EV -2.24%E -0.738%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 07:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.73%E -5.69%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -7.73%E -5.69%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.03%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 10:40 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 22:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 22:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-08-05 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.78% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.22% | 1.7% | 2026-08-05 22:20 |