Langue:Français
Ugo Humbert v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →
Résultat du match
Ugo Humbert (Local)
Prévision 67.84%1.47cote équitable
EV -2.31%
Avantage -1.60%
Kelly -5.24%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 1.44
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
65.53%67.87%67.81%69.20%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
1.351.401.401.4474.07%71.63%71.43%69.44%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visiteur)
Prévision 32.16%3.11cote équitable
EV -0.313%
Avantage -0.101%
Kelly -0.149%
Croissance +0.000%
avec la cote maximale 3.10
Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
30.80%32.13%32.19%34.47%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Distribution des cotes
2.702.962.983.1037.04%33.77%33.56%32.26%MIN.MOYENNEMÉDIANEMAX.
Aux dernières cotes avant le début, Moyenne interquartile (Liste Sélectionnée) estimait pour Résultat du match : Ugo Humbert (Local) : 67.84% ; Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visiteur) : 32.16%. Pour Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visiteur), cette estimation équivalait à une cote décimale juste de 3.11. Aucun opérateur admissible ne proposait de cote de clôture supérieure à ce seuil : la meilleure était 3.10, pour une espérance de -0.313% ; elle ne produisait pas d’espérance positive.
Cotes des opérateurs (65 opérateurs)
Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.
| Opérateur | Local ▼ | Visiteur | Marge | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -2.31%E -1.60%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -9.96%E -3.56%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 21:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.08%EV -2.98%E -2.09%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.92%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-05 19:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.98%E -2.09%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 22:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-05 10:24 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 09:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -4.17%E -1.40%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-05 20:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-05 22:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-05 08:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.96%E -3.56%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 21:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -11.57%E -4.21%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-05 08:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -11.57%E -4.21%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-05 08:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -13.18%E -4.88%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-05 21:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -4.34%E -3.08%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV -2.24%E -0.738%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -4.34%E -3.08%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV -2.24%E -0.738%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 10:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.81%EV -4.34%E -3.08%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.19%EV -4.49%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 22:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -4.34%E -3.08%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -5.78%E -1.97%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 07:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 13:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 21:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 22:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 10:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%EV -5.46%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 20:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 10:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 08:53 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.39%E -2.57%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 08:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.39%E -2.57%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.39%E -2.57%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 20:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.71%E -2.69%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-05 08:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.71%E -2.69%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-05 08:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.96%E -3.56%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-05 20:11 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.96%E -3.56%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-05 20:12 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.70%E -4.10%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.70%E -4.10%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 16:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -0.313%E -0.101%K -0.149%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -1.28%E -0.416%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 10:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.91%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.09%EV -6.10%E -2.09%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 16:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 11:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.09%EV -7.73%E -5.69%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.91%EV -2.24%E -0.738%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 07:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.73%E -5.69%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -7.73%E -5.69%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.03%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 10:40 |
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu
Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.
Plateformes d’échange (7)
| Opérateur | Local | Visiteur | Marge ▲ | Mise à jour |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 22:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 22:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-08-05 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.78% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.22% | 1.7% | 2026-08-05 22:20 |