Lingua:Italiano
Ugo Humbert v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →
Testa a testa
Ugo Humbert (Casa)
Previsione 67.84%1.47quota equa
EV -2.31%
Vantaggio -1.60%
Kelly -5.24%
Crescita +0.000%
ipotizzando la quota massima 1.44
Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
65.53%67.87%67.81%69.20%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
1.351.401.401.4474.07%71.63%71.43%69.44%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Trasferta)
Previsione 32.16%3.11quota equa
EV -0.313%
Vantaggio -0.101%
Kelly -0.149%
Crescita +0.000%
ipotizzando la quota massima 3.10
Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker
30.80%32.13%32.19%34.47%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Distribuzione delle quote
2.702.962.983.1037.04%33.77%33.56%32.26%MIN.MEDIAMEDIANAMAX.
Alle ultime quote prima dell’inizio, Media interquartile (Lista Curata) stimava per Testa a testa: Ugo Humbert (Casa): 67.84%; Daniel Merida Aguilar (Trasferta): 32.16%. Per Daniel Merida Aguilar (Trasferta), questa stima equivaleva a una quota decimale equa di 3.11. Nessun bookmaker idoneo offriva una quota di chiusura superiore a tale livello: la migliore era 3.10, con un valore atteso del -0.313%; non produceva valore atteso positivo.
Quote dei bookmaker (65 bookmaker)
Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.
| Bookmaker | Casa ▼ | Trasferta | Margine | Aggiornamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -2.31%E -1.60%K -5.24%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -9.96%E -3.56%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 21:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.08%EV -2.98%E -2.09%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.92%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-08-05 19:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -2.98%E -2.09%K -6.94%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 22:40 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-05 10:24 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 09:45 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.73%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.98I 33.56%NM 32.27%EV -4.17%E -1.40%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-05 20:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-05 22:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-05 08:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -9.96%E -3.56%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-05 21:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -11.57%E -4.21%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-05 08:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -11.57%E -4.21%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-05 08:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -3.66%E -2.58%K -8.72%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -13.18%E -4.88%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-05 21:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -4.34%E -3.08%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV -2.24%E -0.738%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.31%EV -4.34%E -3.08%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 31.69%EV -2.24%E -0.738%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-05 10:34 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.81%EV -4.34%E -3.08%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 2.97I 33.67%NM 32.19%EV -4.49%E -1.51%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 22:39 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -4.34%E -3.08%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -5.78%E -1.97%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 07:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 13:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:55 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 21:05 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 22:25 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 10:34 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.74%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.26%EV -5.46%E -1.86%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 20:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 10:34 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 18:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-05 08:53 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.39%E -2.57%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 08:25 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.39%E -2.57%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -7.39%E -2.57%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 20:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.71%E -2.69%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-05 08:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -7.71%E -2.69%K -4.12%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-05 08:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.96%E -3.56%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-05 20:11 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.02%E -3.59%K -12.55%G +0.000% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -9.96%E -3.56%K -5.53%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-05 20:12 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.69%EV -5.70%E -4.10%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.31%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -5.70%E -4.10%K -14.61%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 16:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -0.313%E -0.101%K -0.149%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.99%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.07I 32.57%NM 31.01%EV -1.28%E -0.416%K -0.617%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 10:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -1.92%E -0.630%K -0.937%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 17:55 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.91%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.09%EV -6.10%E -2.09%K -3.18%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-05 16:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -6.38%E -4.62%K -16.78%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -6.74%E -2.33%K -3.55%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 11:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.09%EV -7.73%E -5.69%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 3.04I 32.89%NM 30.91%EV -2.24%E -0.738%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 07:45 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.73%E -5.69%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -3.53%E -1.18%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-05 10:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.45%EV -7.73%E -5.69%K -21.48%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.55%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-05 14:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -8.41%E -6.23%K -24.03%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -5.14%E -1.74%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 10:40 |
Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale
Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.
Borse di scommesse (7)
| Bookmaker | Casa | Trasferta | Margine ▲ | Aggiornamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 22:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.44I 69.44%NM 68.97% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 31.03% | 0.7% | 2026-08-05 22:20 |
| Novig◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.31% | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.69% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 22:40 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89% | 1.2% | 2026-08-05 22:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.78% | 3.15I 31.75%NM 31.22% | 1.7% | 2026-08-05 22:20 |