Language:English
Stefanos Tsitsipas v Joao Fonseca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local)
Prediction 41.90%2.39fair odd
EV -0.272%
Edge -0.114%
Kelly -0.197%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.75%41.88%41.89%44.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.252.252.3847.62%44.39%44.44%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Joao Fonseca (Visit)
Prediction 58.10%1.72fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.726%
Kelly -1.76%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.26%58.12%58.11%60.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.641.651.7064.52%61.07%60.61%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local): 41.90%; Joao Fonseca (Visit): 58.10%. For Stefanos Tsitsipas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.39. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.38, with an expected value of -0.272%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (65 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.05%EV -0.272%E -0.114%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.95%EV -7.62%E -4.80%K -12.92%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-05 14:52 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.272%E -0.114%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.79%E -5.60%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.272%E -0.114%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.79%E -5.60%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.272%E -0.114%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.79%E -5.60%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -0.272%E -0.114%K -0.197%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -8.79%E -5.60%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 14:45 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.53%E -0.651%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.53%E -0.651%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV -1.53%E -0.651%K -1.13%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -3.62%E -1.58%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -3.56%E -2.14%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -3.62%E -1.58%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-05 14:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.62%EV -3.62%E -1.58%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.38%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.62%E -1.58%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.88%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 05:35 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.62%E -1.58%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -5.88%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.62%E -1.58%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.46%E -4.01%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -3.62%E -1.58%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.95%E -6.42%K -18.09%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 13:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.73%EV -4.04%E -1.77%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.27%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.57%EV -4.46%E -1.96%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.43%EV -1.82%E -1.07%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-05 14:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -4.46%E -1.96%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.16%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-05 14:49 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -4.88%E -2.15%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -4.88%E -2.15%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.94%EV -4.88%E -2.15%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.06%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.27I 44.05%NM 41.79%EV -4.88%E -2.15%K -3.84%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.21%EV -5.30%E -3.25%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -5.30%E -2.35%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -3.56%E -2.14%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-05 10:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 14:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -5.30%E -3.25%K -8.41%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.88%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.88%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.88%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.88%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.46%E -4.01%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.79%E -5.60%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -5.72%E -2.54%K -4.58%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.79%E -5.60%K -15.42%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 13:15 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 10:34 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.53%EV -6.56%E -2.94%K -5.33%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.47%EV -4.14%E -2.51%K -6.37%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.04%EV -6.98%E -3.14%K -5.72%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.96%EV -6.46%E -4.01%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.33%EV -7.40%E -3.35%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.67%EV -1.82%E -1.07%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.81%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.98%E -1.78%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 07:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.81%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.98%E -1.78%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 11:00 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.81%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.98%E -1.78%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 11:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.81%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.98%E -1.78%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.81%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.98%E -1.78%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 11:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.81%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.98%E -1.78%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.81%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.98%E -1.78%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 12:10 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -7.81%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.98%E -1.78%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -7.81%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -4.72%E -2.88%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 14:54 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.81%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.04%E -4.40%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -7.81%E -3.55%K -6.51%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -7.04%E -4.40%K -11.74%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.26%EV -8.23%E -3.76%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.74%EV -2.98%E -1.78%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-05 07:35 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -8.65%E -3.97%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -5.88%E -3.63%K -9.49%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-05 10:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -9.91%E -4.61%K -8.62%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -1.82%E -1.07%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-05 10:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -12.00%E -5.72%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -1.23%E -0.726%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.76% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.24% | 0.6% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.29% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.71% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 39.95% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 60.05% | 0.9% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |
| Novig◎ | 2.41I 41.49%NM 40.93% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.07% | 1.4% | 2026-08-05 14:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.44I 40.98%NM 39.90% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 60.10% | 2.7% | 2026-08-05 14:55 |