Language:English
Shintaro Mochizuki v Fabian Marozsan
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Shintaro Mochizuki (Local)
Prediction 37.78%2.65fair odd
EV -1.01%
Edge -0.384%
Kelly -0.621%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.41%37.74%37.93%39.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.512.502.6242.55%39.80%40.00%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Fabian Marozsan (Visit)
Prediction 62.22%1.61fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -5.26%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.26%62.26%62.07%63.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.471.521.531.5668.03%65.73%65.36%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Shintaro Mochizuki (Local): 37.78%; Fabian Marozsan (Visit): 62.22%. For Shintaro Mochizuki (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.62, with an expected value of -1.01%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -1.01%E -0.384%K -0.621%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-03 23:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -1.38%E -0.530%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -1.38%E -0.530%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-04 20:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -3.57%E -2.30%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 14:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -2.52%E -0.976%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -6.05%E -4.01%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-03 21:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14%EV -2.94%E -1.89%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-04 19:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -3.65%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.94%E -1.89%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.65%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 20:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.65%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 20:08 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.65%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 20:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.65%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.43%E -3.57%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 20:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -3.65%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -6.05%E -4.01%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 20:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -3.65%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -8.54%E -5.81%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-03 03:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV -4.78%E -1.90%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -4.78%E -1.90%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.02%EV -5.16%E -2.06%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.98%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.57%E -2.30%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 11:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-03 23:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 23:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 20:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 23:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 18:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 09:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 19:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 23:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 23:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 18:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.43%E -3.57%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-02 14:13 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.54%E -5.81%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-03 23:10 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.57%E -2.30%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-03 23:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-03 14:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 14:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -8.54%E -5.81%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.57%E -2.30%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-03 14:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-03 14:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -5.43%E -3.57%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-04 01:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-03 18:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-03 18:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.07%E -4.23%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.07%E -4.23%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.07%E -4.23%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.07%E -4.23%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 20:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.21%E -4.77%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -3.57%E -2.30%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-03 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.21%E -4.77%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -3.57%E -2.30%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-03 14:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06% | 1.0% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.65% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.35% | 2.2% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.32% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.68% | 2.3% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Novig◎ | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71% | 3.2% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
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