Idioma:Español
Shintaro Mochizuki v Fabian Marozsan
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Shintaro Mochizuki (Local)
Predicción 37.78%2.65momio equitativo
EV -1.01%
Ventaja -0.384%
Kelly -0.621%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.62
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
36.41%37.74%37.93%39.74%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.352.512.502.6242.55%39.80%40.00%38.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Fabian Marozsan (Visitante)
Predicción 62.22%1.61momio equitativo
EV -2.94%
Ventaja -1.89%
Kelly -5.26%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.56
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
60.26%62.26%62.07%63.59%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.471.521.531.5668.03%65.73%65.36%64.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Shintaro Mochizuki (Local): 37.78%; Fabian Marozsan (Visitante): 62.22%. Para Shintaro Mochizuki (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.65. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.62, con un valor esperado de -1.01%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (64 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local ▼ | Visitante | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -1.01%E -0.384%K -0.621%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-03 23:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -1.38%E -0.530%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 37.11%EV -1.38%E -0.530%K -0.860%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.89%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-04 20:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.35%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 62.65%EV -3.57%E -2.30%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:15 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:14 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:15 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:19 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 13:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -1.76%E -0.678%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-02 14:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -2.52%E -0.976%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -6.05%E -4.01%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-03 21:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86%EV -3.27%E -1.28%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14%EV -2.94%E -1.89%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-04 19:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -3.65%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -2.94%E -1.89%K -5.26%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.65%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 20:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.65%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 20:08 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -3.65%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-04 20:10 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -3.65%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -5.43%E -3.57%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 20:19 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -3.65%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -6.05%E -4.01%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 20:15 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -3.65%E -1.43%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -8.54%E -5.81%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-03 03:24 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.93%EV -4.78%E -1.90%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.07%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -4.78%E -1.90%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.02%EV -5.16%E -2.06%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.98%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -3.57%E -2.30%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-04 11:34 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -4.19%E -2.72%K -7.75%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-03 23:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 23:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 20:29 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 23:10 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 18:30 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 09:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 19:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 23:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-03 23:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-04 18:50 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.43%E -3.57%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-02 14:13 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -5.54%E -2.22%K -3.69%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -8.54%E -5.81%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-03 23:10 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -3.57%E -2.30%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-03 23:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-03 14:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 14:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -7.43%E -3.03%K -5.12%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -8.54%E -5.81%K -18.18%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -3.57%E -2.30%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-03 14:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-03 14:20 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.22%EV -5.43%E -3.57%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-04 01:24 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-03 18:29 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.32%E -3.88%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.68%E -4.45%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-03 18:35 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.07%E -4.23%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.07%E -4.23%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.07%E -4.23%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -10.07%E -4.23%K -7.30%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.81%E -3.14%K -9.07%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-08-04 20:29 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.21%E -4.77%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -3.57%E -2.30%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-03 14:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -11.21%E -4.77%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -3.57%E -2.30%K -6.48%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-03 14:19 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (7)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 37.09% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.91% | 0.6% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.94% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 63.06% | 1.0% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.65% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.35% | 2.2% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.32% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.68% | 2.3% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |
| Novig◎ | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71% | 3.2% | 2026-08-04 20:30 |